438 
FXUS64 KFWD 312313
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
513 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation... 

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through New Years Day/

High temperatures had no problem warming into the 70s in most
locations this afternoon due to increasing low level warm air
advection, periods of sun, and compressional warming from a 
breezy southwest wind. Warm air advection will continue tonight 
through Sunday in response to a low pressure system approaching 
from the west. Lows tonight will be warmer than last night with 
mainly lower 50s. Highs Sunday will be just shy of some records 
for the first day of the new year, ranging from the lower 70s in 
the east to around 80 across parts of Central Texas. If afternoon
clouds end up being thin or less numerous than currently expected,
some high temperature records may be in jeopardy.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 144 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2022/
Update:
The long term forecast features the storm system on Monday
followed by near seasonal temperatures and dry weather the rest 
of week.

Increasing moisture ahead of the approaching closed low will 
result in scattered light rain late Sunday night into Monday 
morning. Coverage of showers and storms will increase during the 
day as a pacific front/dryline approaches from the west. Areas 
near/east of the I-35 corridor will have the highest rain and 
storm chances as the front moves through late morning and 
afternoon. Our thinking regarding the severe weather potential 
remains the same with the best chances along and east of I-35. 
However, there's still some uncertainties with the timing of the 
front which will impact where these late morning/early afternoon 
storms actually develop. See discussion below for more in-depth 
details.

Dry and more seasonable-like weather (Highs:50s/60s) will follow 
the rest of the first week of 2023 as a surface ridge dominate 
the weather pattern across the plains.

Sanchez

Previous Discussion:
/Sunday Night Onward/

Summary:
Warm and breezy weather can be expected on New Year's Day. Showers
and storms are expected on Monday associated with an upper level
low pressure system and a cold front. Some severe weather will be
possible along and east of I-35. Dry and seasonable weather is 
then expected for the rest of next week.

Discussion:
An upper level low will cross the Four Corners Sunday night 
before emerging in the Central and Southern Plains on Monday. At 
the surface, a 1000mb (MSLP) lee-Rockies surface low will 
accompany the upper level system, and should be located over 
eastern Colorado by daybreak Monday. A Pacific front will extend 
southward from the surface low through West-Central Texas. Warm 
and moist air advection will keep temperatures on the warm side 
for early January, with Monday morning lows ranging from the upper
50s in the northwest to the mid 60s across the south.

A moist and unstable airmass will develop across the region as 
the upper low and surface frontal system approach from the west. 
Scattered showers and a few elevated storms may be ongoing in the 
morning, but more widespread convection will develop by afternoon 
as a lead shortwave lifts northeast through the Big Country. 
Storms will likely develop along or just ahead of the surface 
front, which still looks to be located near or perhaps slightly 
east of the Interstate 35 corridor around the time of convective 
initiation. Bulk shear values around 50kt, in combination with 
MUCape values of 1500+ j/kg, would support supercellular storm 
mode in the early stages, making storms capable of producing both 
large hail and damaging winds. SRH values in the lowest levels 
also appear pretty robust, or sufficient to support the 
development of a few tornadoes.

The shear vector being nearly parallel with the front may allow 
for rapid storm mergers and the transition to a linear system as 
convection progresses east across the eastern half of the forecast
area Monday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds would be the 
primary storm threat at that stage, but a tornado concern may 
also still exist with any embedded supercells or qlcs spin-ups. 
With all that said, we are still a few days out, and a slight 
shift either west or east in the frontal position as storms 
develop could make a big difference on where the best severe 
potential would exist, so be sure to check back for updates this 
weekend.

Storms will exit to our east late in the evening, leaving dry and
cooler air in place across the region Monday night. Temperatures 
will still be above normal, however, until a secondary front 
ushers in an even cooler airmass Tuesday night into Wednesday. 
Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions will be the result for 
the second half of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
 
VFR at all TAF sites through Sunday with scattered to occasionally
broken high clouds. 

A south to southwest wind will prevail between 8 and 13 knots 
tonight and Sunday with occasional higher gusts Sunday afternoon.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    54  77  62  73  50 /   0   0  10  70  20 
Waco                52  77  63  75  48 /   0   0  20  60  20 
Paris               50  72  61  70  49 /   0   0  20 100  50 
Denton              51  75  61  72  45 /   0   0  10  70  20 
McKinney            51  74  61  72  47 /   0   0  10  80  20 
Dallas              55  76  62  73  51 /   0   0  10  80  20 
Terrell             54  74  62  73  50 /   0   0  20  90  30 
Corsicana           55  75  63  75  52 /   0   0  20  90  30 
Temple              52  76  63  75  50 /   0   0  20  50  20 
Mineral Wells       49  78  59  73  45 /   0   0  10  40  10 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$