021 
FXUS61 KALY 301359
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
859 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers will be possible north and west of Albany this
afternoon and evening associated with a warm front. Increasing 
chances for a more widespread rainfall is expected late New 
Years Eve into early New Years Day, as low pressure approaching 
from the southwest tracks across our region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...Satellite imagery reveals some breaks in the clouds,
especially north/south of Albany. Made some adjustments to
account for this trend this morning. Raised max temps around 
1-2 degrees based on some expected breaks of sunshine continuing
this afternoon. Otherwise no significant changes with this 
update.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0633]...Cloudy across the region as west and 
southwest flow has advected the clouds and there is much more 
cloudiness upstream. The cloud layer is somewhat shallow and 
there are some holes in the clouds in a few areas that form and 
then close up while new holes form in other places. Daytime 
mixing along with increasing west to southwest boundary layer 
flow could break some larger holes in the clouds through the 
day, especially from the Capital Region, Berkshires and points 
south. That is to be seen, if the sun at its weakest sun angle 
of the year can help some of the breakup of the clouds.

Boundary layer temperatures are very warm, so if the sun can 
break through in some areas, temperatures could warm well into 
the 50s. The clouds should hold strong in areas from the Mohawk
Valley and southern VT and points north. So, highs in the 50s
with mid to upper 40s in northern areas where clouds will be
most persistent.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
There are conflicting signals on whether there will be some
breaks in the clouds tonight that would allow temperatures to
drop quickly. Whatever areas that see some breaks or thinning of
clouds in the evening, will see solid cloud cover spread across
our region through daybreak and all areas will be cloudy by 
then. 

Rain spreads across our region through the day Saturday and all
areas will see rain by late afternoon. Highs Saturday in the 
mid 40s to lower 50s. Rain continues Saturday night and low
level cold advection begins by daybreak. Rain could end as a mix
of rain and snow showers in the southern Adirondacks. Moisture,
upper dynamics and low level forcing not very anomalous, so 
total rainfall amounts through daybreak Sunday should be a half 
inch or less. Some snow melt is possible and no hydrological 
problems are expected.

Any lingering shower activity ends Sunday morning. Breezy west 
to northwest winds and improving sky will help temperatures 
reach the mid 40s to around 50 with upper 30s to lower 40s
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Preliminary conditions of the extended forecast period are expected 
to be tranquil with mid-upper level ridging and broad surface high 
pressure dominating the region ahead of a potent warm front that 
will bring yet another round of widespread rain starting Tuesday and 
near record daily high temperatures Wednesday. Persistence of 
requisite cloud cover will contribute to highs Monday that, while 
still being unseasonably mild, will be some of the coolest for this 
period. Expect low to upper 40s throughout much of the region with 
pockets near 50 in our southern-most counties and those of upper 30s 
at the highest peaks of the Adirondacks. 

Models currently show that a mid-upper level trough and associated 
low pressure core originating in the Great Planes is likely to 
progress northeastward following its deepening period through 
Monday. As it tracks toward the western boundary of the Great Lakes 
region and Ohio Valley, our pre-existing westerly flow regime shifts 
to the southwest, enabling the system's amplified 70 kt, 850mb jet 
to drive warm air into the forecast area early Tuesday morning. 
While there still exists uncertainty surrounding the exact track and 
timing of the system, models are increasingly agreeing that rain 
showers could be inflicted upon the region by Tuesday afternoon. 
Precipitation duration and accumulation is still a forecast 
challenge with this event due to the suspected secondary frontal 
progression almost directly in the wake of this one. This next 
feature looks to be a cold front whose considerable north-south 
extension and southwesterly flow will form a decent moisture 
axis from the Gulf of Mexico northward into Quebec, increasing 
the probability of prolonged precipitation for the area. The 
introduction of a cooler airmass does pose the question of 
precipitation type for later in the week, however, the 
substantial amount of uncertainty at the current lead time 
creates an even greater challenge with determining these 
specifics. For now, greatest confidence lies in rain showers 
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday with the potential for more 
unsettled weather at the end of the week. 

Temperatures throughout the majority of the period will be well 
above normal. Tuesday looks to feature temperatures in the upper 40s 
to low 50s while Wednesday nears daily high record temperatures with 
highs expected to be in the low 50s to near 60. The progression of 
the cold front Wednesday night will cool temperatures back to the 
40s to near 50 Thursday before the return to more near normal 
Friday. 

For Reference... January 4th (Wednesday of this period) record
highs:Albany, NY: 64 degrees set in 1950; Glens Falls, NY: 63 
degrees set in 1950; Poughkeepsie, NY: 64 degrees set in 1950

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A shallow layer of low-level stratus
continues to overspread the forecast area this morning forcing
the persistence of lowered ceilings. As of 6:30AM, KGFL is the
sole terminal with MVFR-category ceiling heights, though KPSF is
closely hugging the boundary between that and VFR. The
possibility for KPSF to drop into the MVFR category cannot be
ruled out, therefore a TEMPO group has been added for the next
couple of hours. Both KGFL and KPSF should improve to VFR
ceilings by 15-16z. 

Winds throughout the 12z TAF cycle will remain light and flow
mainly out of the south ranging from 3-6 kt in magnitude.


Outlook...

Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
New Years Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Numerous SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Numerous SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
With above normal temperatures expected through the next 
several days, there will be snow melt. Modeled snow-water 
equivalent is generally less than an inch across the Hudson 
Valley, with 1 to 2 inches west/east of the Hudson Valley and 2 
to 4 inches in the western/southern Adirondacks and southern 
Greens. With temperatures still relatively cool at night (mainly
30s) and dewpoints in the 30s to lower 40s in the higher 
terrain, the snow melt is expected to be gradual. Rainfall 
expected to be less than an inch this weekend, which combined 
with snow melt will cause some rises on area rivers and streams,
but no flooding is expected through the holiday weekend. 

Additional rainfall and continued mild temperatures are 
expected next week, so we will need to monitor for some 
possible flooding.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Gant
HYDROLOGY...