860 
FXUS64 KMAF 301112
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
512 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 251 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022

Currently seeing an advection of mid-level moisture from the 
southwest ahead of our shortwave trough located just west of El 
Paso. We'll see our trough pivot eastward over the next 24 hrs
with the best ascent entering our forecast area early this 
morning around 12z, carrying through the afternoon before lifting 
east to the Rio Concho. All guidance is signaling an increase in 
showers over the Guadalupes and Hwy 54 corridor down to the 
Presidio Valley, eventually congealing into scattered area of rain
showers extending from the Pecos river valley in Eddy county down
to the Big Bend. Best ascent will be focused across SW TX where a
period of widespread shower activity will encompass places in the
Davis Mtns and Marfa Plateau over to the Big Bend before shifting
its focus outside our CWA. Rainfall totals will be light in 
nature with 0.25" or less anticipated in any location through the 
early afternoon hours. Temperatures will run cooler due to 
extensive cloud cover with 50s and 60s for pretty much everywhere 
this afternoon. 

Later this evening into Saturday, we'll see a shift in the overall 
upper air pattern as our trough will scoot over to the east side 
of the state with a quick moving shortwave ripping through NM, 
eventually passing to our north by the end of the forecast period.
Skies will remain generally clear, but persistent SW flow will 
allow for a primed downslope component causing warming to occur 
areawide to begin the weekend. Highs on Saturday will be well into
the 60s with 70s located over the Stockton Plateau, far eastern 
CWA, and the RGV. Due to local pressure gradient affects from the 
mountains and positioning of the Pass, another high wind event is 
forecast for Saturday AM/PM for GDP and higher ridges in the 
mountain chain. A High Wind Watch will remain in effect for the 
Guadalupes and Delawares on Saturday morning through early evening
for the event. Winds will be gusty elsewhere on Saturday, but 
below advisory criteria according to current guidance. We'll 
monitor for any short term upgrades necessary, mainly for 
surrounding high plains. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022

The main story in the long term will be the wind, with a prolonged 
windy period expected across the area beginning on Monday. Until 
then, starting on Saturday night, windy conditions will be ongoing
across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains and potentially into 
the adjacent plains of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, and a 
High Wind Watch currently in effect will be upgraded to a High 
Wind Warning within the next 12-24 hours. The culprit behind the 
initial high wind event will be a tightening pressure gradient and
increasing southwesterly flow aloft over the higher terrain ahead
of a deepening trough making its way toward the Great Basin. 
Sunday, this gradient will loosen somewhat as flow becomes 
meridional in response to the trough's progression across the Four
Corners Region, providing a brief reprieve from the windy 
conditions. This trough will continue to be the main driver of our
weather into early next week as the associated midlevel low 
progresses north of the region and the trough develops a subtle 
negative tilt. This northward trek of the system as well as the 
development of a surface low over the northern Texas and Oklahoma 
Panhandles will yield increasingly windy conditions as early as 
Monday morning, first across the higher terrain of the Guadalupe 
Mountains, then expanding eastward and southward across much of 
the area through Monday afternoon. As the trough translates 
eastward into the Plains by Monday night, an attendant Pacific 
front will surge across the region, yielding cooler temperatures 
on Monday as well as increasing westerly winds areawide. 

As the trough progresses to the east, broad troughing will begin 
to develop across the CONUS, with another shortwave progged to 
skirt north of the region Tuesday, maintaining the tight pressure 
gradient over the area as well as a pronounced mountain wave 
signature over the Guadalupe Mountains through Tuesday night. 
Winds look to finally diminish heading into Wednesday as the 
large-scale trough shifts to the east ahead of brief midlevel 
ridging progged to develop Thursday. Currently, prolonged high 
wind products look likely from Monday morning through Wednesday 
morning, particularly across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains 
as well as the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains. Widespread 
advisory conditions will also be possible across the plains, with 
impacts including potential blowing dust and dangerous crosswinds 
for high profile vehicles.

Aside from the winds, the extended remains mostly dry, with the  
exception of Sunday night into Monday along and ahead of the 
aforementioned Pacific front associated with Monday's trough  
passage. The best chance for precipitation is currently west of
the Pecos River, though forecast rainfall amounts remain light. 
Temperatures Sunday will be well above normal under the influence 
of southerly return flow ahead of the approaching trough, with 
highs in the 60s west to middle 70s east, and 80s through the Rio 
Grande Valley. The Pacific front Monday will mark the beginning of
a cooldown with temperatures in the 50s and 60s for most, with 
Wednesday and Wednesday night looking to be the coolest as a cold 
front pushes southward into the region, yielding highs Wednesday 
in the lower 50s to around 60 degrees for most, and lows Thursday 
morning in the upper 20s to middle 30s. Temperatures moderate back
toward normal on Thursday, with a potential warming trend 
thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022

Prevailing VFR through the period expected. Iso/Sct SHRA will be
moving through SW TX and portions of SE NM, possibly affecting
KCNM/KPEQ/KFST thru 18z with -RA for a period or two. Rain will
remain light, limiting impacts. Vis and cigs will stay VFR 
despite any precip. Conditions improve after 18z as precip moves 
out and clr skies anticipated beyond 00z. Winds becoming SW after 
18z for all terminals. Speeds generally <12kts with max of 15kts 
possible b/w 18-00z. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               60  40  70  47 /  10   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                 60  41  66  47 /  30   0   0   0 
Dryden                   60  42  71  46 /  50   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton            60  43  73  48 /  30   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass           51  39  56  43 /  40   0   0   0 
Hobbs                    58  38  66  45 /  20   0   0   0 
Marfa                    55  32  64  36 /  50   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport     60  40  69  48 /  10   0   0   0 
Odessa                   60  41  69  48 /  20   0   0   0 
Wink                     61  39  69  45 /  20   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening 
     for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and 
     Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Saturday evening for 
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...87