243 
FXUS61 KALY 300542
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1242 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front well north of our region will result in a mild 
southerly flow with continued above normal temperatures through 
the rest of the week. With a ridge of high pressure aloft in 
place, mainly dry conditions are expected through tonight. 
Scattered showers will be possible north and west of Albany on 
Friday associated with another warm front. Increasing chances 
for a more widespread rainfall is expected late New Years Eve 
into early New Years Day, as low pressure approaching from the 
southwest tracks across our region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Cloudy across the region as west and southwest flow has advected
the clouds and there is much more cloudiness upstream. So,
cloudy through daybreak and light south winds channeling in some
valleys, while calm in other areas. The clouds and light winds
will prevent temperatures from falling more than a degree or two
from current levels through daybreak, and even rise a degree or
two in some areas that saw a clear sky earlier. Temperatures in
the 30s to lower 40s through daybreak.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
On Friday, an upper level ridge axis will shift eastward 
towards the New England coast, with a SW flow aloft and flat 
ridging across eastern New York and western New England. 500 mb 
height anomalies will still be between +1 to +3 STDEV despite 
the ridge axis moving east of our area. So not much precip is 
expected, except for a few showers possible well north/west of 
Albany associated with some weak isentropic lift. There will 
likely be extensive cloud cover across northern areas as well. 
From around Albany southward, a mix of sun and clouds expected 
which combined with a continued anomalously warm air mass 
(850/925 mb temp anomalies of +1 to +3 STDEV) will result in 
highs well above normal for late December (upper 40s to mid 
50s). From the Mohawk Valley north, highs will not be as warm 
due to the greater cloud cover with mainly lower/mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
On Friday night the pattern is expected to amplify, as an upper
level trough emerges out of the southern Plains, resulting in 
surface cyclogenesis across the Mississippi Valley region. Ahead
of this system, our region will be in a persistent mild SW flow
regime. A weak cold front approaching the St. Lawrence Valley 
may bring some light showers to parts of the western 
Adirondacks/Mohawk valley. Otherwise, dry conditions will 
persist across the rest of the area with some patchy fog 
possible. It will be mild, with lows in the 30s. Coldest temps 
will be in sheltered areas where winds are near calm and/or 
where breaks in the clouds occur. At this time, we are still 
expecting surface temps to be above freezing.

On Saturday(New Year's Eve), the cyclone will track NE into the
Ohio Valley region but remain fairly weak ~1005 mb. A mild SW 
flow will continue across the Northeast CONUS. It will be mostly
cloudy, but with the persistent warm air mass in place and a 
southerly flow, high temps will be well above normal again (mid 
40s to lower 50s). While some showers may develop especially 
during the afternoon, the bulk of the rain should hold off until
late afternoon to early evening.

Trends in the guidance have slightly slowed the arrival of rain
associated with the cyclone, as isentropic lift starts to 
increase more significantly towards New Year's Eve evening. So 
will mention highest PoPs between 00Z-12Z Sunday, as the cyclone
tracks NE across western/northern NY during this time. GEFS/EPS
ensembles favors this track, while some individual outliers are
farther south/east. Widespread PWAT anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEV
forecast, so while the system is fairly weak/progressive there 
will be sufficient moisture/forcing to produce around 0.30-0.75
inches of rain. Runoff from rain and snow melt will result in 
river rises, but no flooding is expected at this time. See Hydro
section for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
It will be mild and wet through the period to start the new year. 
Looking at temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above normal. 

On Sunday, a deepening system will be exiting the region moving
across the Canadian Maritimes with some lingering showers possible
across portions of the local area Sunday morning. Fair weather 
is expected Sunday afternoon through Monday night with high 
pressure at the surface and aloft building into and moving 
across the region. A large low pressure system is expected to 
develop over the Plains early next week and track northeastward 
across the Great Lakes Region. There are differences amongst the
guidance with the evolution and timing of the system, however 
there is agreement we will be on the warm side of the system. 
Near record warmth is a possibility Wednesday ahead of the 
system's cold front. Forecasting highs Wednesday from the upper 
40s to around 60 degrees. January 4th record highs: Albany NY: 
64 degrees 1950, Glens Falls NY: 63 degrees 1950 and
Poughkeepsie NY: 64 degrees 1950. Another system is expected to
impact the region for the latter part of the week with 
continued chances for showers; rain showers in advance of the 
system's cold front and snow showers in its wake. 

Looking further ahead, the Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 Day 
Temperature Outlook for January 4th-8th and 8-14 Day Temperature 
Outlook for January 6th-12th both favor above normal temperatures.
As for precipitation, the 6-10 Day Outlook leans toward above 
normal and the 8-14 Day Outlook near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...Low-level stratus progress through the 
region ahead of a secondary incoming warm front, lowering
ceilings at all TAF sites to borderline MVFR. Currently, KPSF is
the only terminal reporting MVFR ceilings, however, throughout
the 06z TAF period, it will be possible for all other sites to
dip into this lowered category. That being said, it is more
likely that KALB/KGFL have this outcome with ceilings expected
to rise more progressively tomorrow morning at KPOU. KPSF will
likely remain within the MVFR ceiling category until after 15z
tomorrow morning before daytime mixing aids in lifting ceiling
heights back to VFR. 

Winds throughout the 06z TAF cycle will be mainly
southerly/southwesterly and light ranging from 3-6 kt. 

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
New Years Day: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
With above normal temperatures expected through the next 
several days, there will be snow melt. Modeled snow-water 
equivalent is generally less than an inch across the Hudson 
Valley, with 1 to 2 inches west/east of the Hudson Valley and 2 
to 4 inches in the western/southern Adirondacks and southern 
Greens. With temperatures still relatively cool at night (mainly
30s) and dewpoints in the 30s to lower 40s in the higher 
terrain, the snow melt is expected to be gradual. Rainfall 
expected to be less than an inch this weekend, which combined 
with snow melt will cause some rises on area rivers and streams,
but no flooding is expected through the holiday weekend. 

Additional rainfall and continued mild temperatures are 
expected next week, so we will need to monitor for some 
possible flooding.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...Gant
HYDROLOGY...