789 
FXUS61 KBGM 282307
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
607 PM EST Wed Dec 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of high pressure just off the Mid Atlantic coast 
will keep our weather quiet and very mild through Friday. Heading 
into the New Year's weekend, a frontal system will bring increasing 
chances for rain showers, as temperatures remain well above average. 
Dry and still rather mild conditions return to the region on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
235 PM Update

Mainly dry, quiet and very mild weather will persist through the 
near term period. High clouds continue to stream over Central NY 
this afternoon, and are a bit thicker and more widespread than 
initially thought. However, Northeast PA is seeing mainly sunny 
skies late this afternoon. Temperatures warmed up nicely today, 
despite the high clouds, even reaching a few degrees higher than 
forecast...in the upper 30s to mid-40s areawide. Temperatures do not 
drop off too much overnight, as we will still be seeing periodic 
high clouds moving through, combined with a mild southwest flow. 
Look for overnight lows in the mid-20s to lower 30s.

Thursday will feature more sunshine, although there could still be a 
few clouds around from time to time. Very warm temperatures overtake 
the region as the deep south-southwest flow becomes established on 
the backside of the offshore high pressure center. Late day clouds 
try to move in from the north and west as low level moisture 
increases. High temperatures look to reach the mid-40s to lower 50s 
across the area...with the warmest readings in the valleys.

More clouds move in from the west Thursday night, with forecast 
soundings showing a moistening of the profile below 850mb from 
Utica, west to Syracuse down to Penn Yan and Elmira. This type of 
scenario has the potential to produce some light rain showers, 
sprinkles or patchy drizzle over the northwestern half of the CWA. 
It will remain very mild, so ptype for anything that does fall 
should be all rain...overnight lows range in the 30s along and east 
of I-81...to upper 30s and lower 40s west of I-81 into the Finger 
Lakes. A mild south wind is expected overnight at 8-15 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
222 PM Update...
Models have generally trended drier, with upper level ridging 
off the east coast remaining in control on Friday, and a cold 
front over the Great Lakes stalling out to our west. There will 
be a slight chance of a few showers late Friday afternoon and 
Friday night across the NY Thruway corridor. Elsewhere, clouds 
will be on the increase well ahead of a shortwave trough moving 
into the Mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. While most of 
Saturday will be dry and warm, precip chances will begin to 
increase in the afternoon and especially the overnight hours. 
Overnight lows Saturday night will remain in the 40s with clouds
and rain expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
222 PM update... 
Rain will begin to lift north of the area Sunday morning, with 
a brief window for rain changing to snow near and north of the 
Thruway Sunday morning, though accumulation/impacts will be 
minimal. Max temps will only cool down to the lower-40s on 
Monday, behind the departing system, and warm southwesterly flow
looks to return by Tuesday, along with increasing rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expecting VFR conditions to persist overnight and most of the
day Thursday. A layer of mid and high clouds tonight will 
slowly lift north Thu morning and make way for a brief period of
mostly clear skies by midday. Then, toward the mid to later part
of the afternoon another batch of mid level clouds approach 
from the north and west. There could be some high-end MVFR
ceilings push into RME and possibly SYR just before 00Z
Friday...along with a few very light rain showers.

Light south/southwest winds 5-10 kt expected for most terminals
tonight...with the exception of SYR and RME where east/southeast
winds are expected. Low level wind shear (LLWS) will continue
across the region tonight into Thursday morning...where winds 
will be around 35-40 kts out of the southwest at 2k ft AGL. 
The wind shear should dissipate before 18Z Thursday as the
boundary layer becomes well mixed. A few gusts to 15 kt out of
the s/sw are possible before winds dissipate just before sunset
Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday night and Friday...MVFR to MVFR fuel alternate CIGs 
possible, along with patchy drizzle and minor VSBY reductions,
especially the NY Terminals.

Saturday and Sunday...Restrictions possible in rain showers.

Monday...Mainly VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...BJT/MJM