National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDLCH
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDLCH
Product Timestamp: 2022-12-23 05:45 UTC
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145 FXUS64 KLCH 230545 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1145 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 929 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 Minor updates to the grids to reflect the current obs and trends. Temperatures behind the front are dropping a bit faster than what was in the inherited grids, with air temps in the low 20s stretched across parts of interior SETX. However temps in the furthest SE corner of our CWA are in the low 50s giving a 30 degree difference from one corner to the other. Temperatures will continue to drop quickly. No edits were made to any of the warnings nor advisories. Stigger/87 && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 Winds have turned to the northwest this afternoon as a prefrontal trof crosses overhead. This wind shift has occurred ahead of the main arctic front that is swiftly approaching. Onshore flow struggled to develop today which kept temperatures generally in the upper 50s across the area. Temps will plummet over the next several hours, though, as the front arrives. Strong, gusting winds will accompany the harsh temperature drop this evening, and as pressure gradients tighten tonight, the strong winds will prevail through tomorrow. Skies will clear from the northwest as dry air scours out available moisture, and increasing high pressure influence from the northwest will keep cloud cover away for much of tomorrow. As the sfc high expanding over the southern Plains reaches ewd tomorrow, the pressure gradient will wane and winds will relax. However, breezy northerly winds will prevail into the early weekend keeping the cold airmass firmly seated over southeast TX and southwest LA into Christmas Eve (Saturday). Now on to this system's impacts... temperatures will drop well below freezing in the next few hours, with projected lows in the mid teens to nearly 20 by tomorrow morning. This, combined with strong wind gusts, will generate a concerning wind chill threat area-wide through tomorrow morning. Daytime high temps will then struggle to warm above freezing tomorrow with most areas topping out around 30F. After sundown, temperatures drop again into the mid teens to near-20. Winds could stay elevated enough to bring wind chills into the single digits again (Saturday) Christmas Eve morning. Wind Chill Advisories have been issued for both tomorrow and Saturday mornings. A Hard Freeze Warning also goes into effect tonight and will continue through Saturday afternoon when we get our first taste of above- freezing temperatures. Most of us will spend 30 to 40 hours below freezing during this time period and thus cold-weather preparations and procedures must be taken seriously. Last, but certainly not least, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire area as prolonged periods of strong wind gusts are expected. Wind gusts upwards from 25 to 40 MPH will be possible through this time frame. As Christmas is right around the corner, outdoor holiday decorations abound and thus will be susceptible to strong wind gusts. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 Forecast area will continue be within the throes of a bitterly cold arctic outbreak Christmas morning as a longwave trof dominates the ERN half of the CONUS. Hard freeze conditions are expected to be ongoing, with readings forecast to be in the lower 20s away from the coastal marshes, and upper teens possible across parts of interior SE TX and Central LA. (Cold, but a few degrees warmer than SAT morning.) No chance of a white Christmas, however, as the only expected impact from a shortwave trof progged to pivot through the area is an uptick in some mid and/or high level cloud cover that should be mostly gone by afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will see the gradual moderating trend continue, with highs topping out in the lower to mid 40s. One last night of possible hard freeze conditions is forecast SUN night/MON morning as the weakening SFC high settles directly into the area, with a light return flow setting up MON ahead of another approaching shortwave trof and associated weak SFC front. These features will traverse the area MON night into TUE morning, again largely starved of MSTR. In the wake of this trof passage, flow across the region will transition to a W/SW WAA regime, yielding an accelerated warming trend leading to above normal temperatures WED night into THU, along with increasing rain chances ahead of what is currently progged to be a sluggish WRN CONUS trof. 13 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 Now that the clouds have departed the area (or will shortly at the Acadiana terminals), just a wind forecast the next 24 hours. No changes to previous TAF thinking (winds will remain ridiculously elevated as CAA overwhelms the region. Gusts exceeding 30 knots will be frequent through the overnight hours and likely right on through tomorrow). 25 && .MARINE... Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 The main story will be an arctic front that will move through the coastal waters late this afternoon and early evening. A few light showers are crossing coastal waters ahead of an approaching arctic front. Surface winds will progressively turn offshore this afternoon before the main bulk of wind and cold weather arrives tonight. Behind the front, a very cold airmass will over take the Gulf waters, along with a tightening pressure gradient. The strong cold air advection over the relatively warmer Gulf waters will create turbulence with plenty of mixing to bring down strong north winds to surface. Wind speeds will be over 30 knots with gusts to over 45 knots, especially over the outer waters, that will persist into Friday afternoon. Therefore, a Gale Warning will remain in effect for all of the coastal waters. The strong north winds will push water away from the coast and out of the lakes and bays. Therefore, a low water advisory will be in effect starting with the low tide cycle Friday morning. Winds will lower slightly by Friday night, however strong northerly winds will continue with small craft advisory conditions likely to linger into the weekend. Rua/Calhoun && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 14 29 16 38 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 18 32 20 38 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 20 32 20 38 / 10 0 0 0 BPT 17 32 19 41 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Hard Freeze Warning until noon CST Saturday for LAZ027>033- 041>045-052>055-073-074. Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LAZ027-028-030-031. Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM CST Friday for LAZ027>033-041>045- 052>055-073-074. Wind Chill Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 9 AM CST Saturday for LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074. Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for LAZ029-032. Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST Friday for LAZ033-041>045-052>055- 073-074. TX...Hard Freeze Warning until noon CST Saturday for TXZ180-201-215- 216-259>262. Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for TXZ180-201-259>262. Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM CST Friday for TXZ180-201-215-216- 259>262. Wind Chill Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 9 AM CST Saturday for TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262. Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST Friday for TXZ215-216. GM...Gale Warning until 3 PM CST Friday for GMZ430-432-435-450-452- 455-470-472-475. Low Water Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM CST Friday for GMZ430-432- 435. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...25