AFOS product AFDLCH
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLCH
Product Timestamp: 2022-12-23 05:45 UTC

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145 
FXUS64 KLCH 230545
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1145 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

Minor updates to the grids to reflect the current obs and trends.
Temperatures behind the front are dropping a bit faster than
what was in the inherited grids, with air temps in the low 20s 
stretched across parts of interior SETX. However temps in the
furthest SE corner of our CWA are in the low 50s giving a 30
degree difference from one corner to the other. Temperatures will
continue to drop quickly. No edits were made to any of the
warnings nor advisories.
Stigger/87

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

Winds have turned to the northwest this afternoon as a prefrontal
trof crosses overhead. This wind shift has occurred ahead of the 
main arctic front that is swiftly approaching. Onshore flow 
struggled to develop today which kept temperatures generally in 
the upper 50s across the area. 

Temps will plummet over the next several hours, though, as the
front arrives. Strong, gusting winds will accompany the harsh 
temperature drop this evening, and as pressure gradients tighten 
tonight, the strong winds will prevail through tomorrow. Skies
will clear from the northwest as dry air scours out available 
moisture, and increasing high pressure influence from the 
northwest will keep cloud cover away for much of tomorrow. As the 
sfc high expanding over the southern Plains reaches ewd tomorrow, 
the pressure gradient will wane and winds will relax. However, 
breezy northerly winds will prevail into the early weekend keeping
the cold airmass firmly seated over southeast TX and southwest LA
into Christmas Eve (Saturday).

Now on to this system's impacts... temperatures will drop well
below freezing in the next few hours, with projected lows in the
mid teens to nearly 20 by tomorrow morning. This, combined with
strong wind gusts, will generate a concerning wind chill threat
area-wide through tomorrow morning. Daytime high temps will then 
struggle to warm above freezing tomorrow with most areas topping 
out around 30F. After sundown, temperatures drop again into the 
mid teens to near-20. Winds could stay elevated enough to bring 
wind chills into the single digits again (Saturday) Christmas Eve 
morning. Wind Chill Advisories have been issued for both tomorrow 
and Saturday mornings. 

A Hard Freeze Warning also goes into effect tonight and will 
continue through Saturday afternoon when we get our first taste of
above- freezing temperatures. Most of us will spend 30 to 40 
hours below freezing during this time period and thus cold-weather
preparations and procedures must be taken seriously. 

Last, but certainly not least, a Wind Advisory has been issued for
the entire area as prolonged periods of strong wind gusts are 
expected. Wind gusts upwards from 25 to 40 MPH will be possible 
through this time frame. As Christmas is right around the corner,
outdoor holiday decorations abound and thus will be susceptible 
to strong wind gusts. 

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

Forecast area will continue be within the throes of a bitterly cold 
arctic outbreak Christmas morning as a longwave trof dominates the 
ERN half of the CONUS.  Hard freeze conditions are expected to be 
ongoing, with readings forecast to be in the lower 20s away from the 
coastal marshes, and upper teens possible across parts of interior 
SE TX and Central LA. (Cold, but a few degrees warmer than SAT 
morning.) No chance of a white Christmas, however, as the only 
expected impact from a shortwave trof progged to pivot through the 
area is an uptick in some mid and/or high level cloud cover that 
should be mostly gone by afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will see 
the gradual moderating trend continue, with highs topping out in the 
lower to mid 40s.

One last night of possible hard freeze conditions is forecast SUN 
night/MON morning as the weakening SFC high settles directly into 
the area, with a light return flow setting up MON ahead of another 
approaching shortwave trof and associated weak SFC front. These 
features will traverse the area MON night into TUE morning, again 
largely starved of MSTR. In the wake of this trof passage, flow 
across the region will transition to a W/SW WAA regime, yielding an 
accelerated warming trend leading to above normal temperatures WED 
night into THU, along with increasing rain chances ahead of what is 
currently progged to be a sluggish WRN CONUS trof.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

Now that the clouds have departed the area (or will shortly at 
the Acadiana terminals), just a wind forecast the next 24 hours.
No changes to previous TAF thinking (winds will remain  
ridiculously elevated as CAA overwhelms the region. Gusts 
exceeding 30 knots will be frequent through the overnight hours 
and likely right on through tomorrow).

25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

The main story will be an arctic front that will move through the
coastal waters late this afternoon and early evening. 

A few light showers are crossing coastal waters ahead of an
approaching arctic front. Surface winds will progressively turn
offshore this afternoon before the main bulk of wind and cold
weather arrives tonight. 

Behind the front, a very cold airmass will over take the Gulf
waters, along with a tightening pressure gradient. The strong cold
air advection over the relatively warmer Gulf waters will create
turbulence with plenty of mixing to bring down strong north winds
to surface. Wind speeds will be over 30 knots with gusts to over
45 knots, especially over the outer waters, that will persist 
into Friday afternoon. Therefore, a Gale Warning will remain in 
effect for all of the coastal waters. 

The strong north winds will push water away from the coast and out
of the lakes and bays. Therefore, a low water advisory will be in
effect starting with the low tide cycle Friday morning. 

Winds will lower slightly by Friday night, however strong
northerly winds will continue with small craft advisory conditions
likely to linger into the weekend. 

Rua/Calhoun

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  14  29  16  38 /   0   0   0   0 
LCH  18  32  20  38 /   0   0   0   0 
LFT  20  32  20  38 /  10   0   0   0 
BPT  17  32  19  41 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Hard Freeze Warning until noon CST Saturday for LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LAZ027-028-030-031.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM CST Friday for LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 9 AM CST Saturday for 
     LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

     Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for LAZ029-032.

     Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST Friday for LAZ033-041>045-052>055-
     073-074.

TX...Hard Freeze Warning until noon CST Saturday for TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for TXZ180-201-259>262.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM CST Friday for TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 9 AM CST Saturday for 
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

     Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST Friday for TXZ215-216.

GM...Gale Warning until 3 PM CST Friday for GMZ430-432-435-450-452-
     455-470-472-475.

     Low Water Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM CST Friday for GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...25