046 
FXUS63 KLBF 150004
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
604 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

...Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

H5 analysis this morning had a closed low just to the 
west of Yankton SD. A trough extended south southwest of this 
feature into far western Texas. East of the trough and low, ridging 
extended from the upper Ohio valley north to southern portions of 
Hudson Bay. East of this feature, strong low pressure was located 
just south of the Canadian Maritimes. Across the Pacific NW, a 
southwest to northeast oriented ridge extended from central Oregon 
into southwestern Saskatchewan. At the surface, an occluded surface 
low was located over Knox county Nebraska. Light snow continued to 
fall across the northern tier of counties this afternoon. Further 
south, the strong northerly winds have led to areas of blowing snow 
with visibilities down 1-3 miles over the Sandhills and visibilities 
a mile or less over the northern tier of counties.  

Key Messages:

-The threat for accumulating snows is beginning to end south of 
highway 2. 

-The threat for snow will continue over northern Nebraska through 
tonight, with a lingering threat for snow over the northeastern 
forecast area Thursday. Additional light snow will be possible over 
northern Nebraska through Thursday night. 

-Strong winds and blowing snow continues to be an issue across the 
area this afternoon. This threat is expected to carry over into 
tonight. 

-Much colder temperatures persist into the weekend, with the 
potential for well below zero wind chills each morning into next 
week. Even colder air will arrive during the middle to end of next 
week with below zero temperatures possible. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 309 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

The upper level low and surface low will migrate slowly east 
ending up in northern Iowa overnight. A strong surface pressure 
gradient will continue to exist across the forecast area 
overnight. In addition to a tight pressure gradient, the hi res 
models are hinting at some additional cold air advection 
overnight. This adds confidence to higher winds overnight across 
the area. For winds tonight, followed the 90th percentile of the 
NBM forecast. This led to sustained winds around 30 MPH with 
frequent gusts over 40 MPH. With the expected winds persisting 
tonight, felt reluctant to cancel the current headlines. More 
about this below...The latest NAM12 and GFS solns continue to 
indicate weak isentropic lift in the dendritic layer tonight 
across northern Nebraska. ATTM the best lift is focused across the
northern tier of counties. Lift is weaker over the central and 
southern forecast area, and cross sections in this portion of the 
forecast area indicate a drier layer developing tonight which 
would be more unfavorable for snow. That being said, have 
continued to mention snow generally north of highway 2 with the 
best chances in the Pine Ridge and far northeastern forecast area.
The threat for snow will linger into Thursday in the northern 
forecast area as the H5 low and surface low meanders north into 
southern Minnesota. Favorable isentropic lift, albeit weaker, will
persist over far northern Nebraska Thursday. With northwesterly 
winds continuing, locations over the northwestern forecast area 
INVOF the Pine Ridge, could see some local enhancement of snow 
showers tomorrow. Weak isentropic lift will linger even into 
Thursday night across far northern Nebraska and have will continue
to mention a threat for snow over the northern tier of counties. 

Kind of a sticky situation on weather headlines this afternoon. 
Currently we continue to see significantly reduced visibilities 
across our northern tier of counties from Sheridan east to Holt 
county. Visibilities are also fairly low in the remainder of the 
eastern Panhandle and Highway 61 corridor. The only places where 
visibilities have improved to above 3 miles is over Hayes, Chase and 
Lincoln counties. However in open areas, there is still quite a bit 
of blowing and drifting snow given the current wind gusts in the 35 
to 45 MPH range. The bulk of the winter headlines to our west fall 
off after midnight. Current thinking is that most of our headlines 
generally south of highway 2 will fall off sometime around that time 
frame. Would like the evening shift to ascertain conditions this 
evening before canceling our headlines south of Highway 2 early. 
From Sheridan county east, feel fairly confident winter storm and 
blizzard conditions will carry over at least to Thursday morning, 
and probably longer for Boyd and Holt counties. That being said, 
have extended the winter storm warning into Thursday for Boyd and 
Holt counties and will let the remainder of headlines ride as is for 
the time being.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

The upper level low will finally migrate east of Minnesota, 
crossing Wisconsin, ending up over the northern lower peninsula of
Michigan Friday into Friday night. This feature will then be 
absorbed by a northern stream, Canadian trough Saturday into 
Sunday. H85 temps will actually moderate somewhat during the 
latter half of the weekend as the low pulls away from the region. 
We may even see some lower 30s south of I-80 for Saturday and 
Sunday. A weak disturbance will traverse the Dakotas Sunday, 
forcing a cold front through the area Sunday night into Monday. 
This is expected to be a dry FROPA, however, highs will struggle 
to get out of the single digits over northern Nebraska Monday. 
Highs will be in the teens and 20s from Interstate 80 south. After
highs in the teens and 20s for Tuesday and Wednesday, and even 
more potent arctic front will arrive Wednesday night. Light snow 
may accompany this feature and bitterly cold temperatures will 
round out the end of the week. By next Thursday, the latest GFS 
soln, has H85 temps ranging from -20C to -27C across the forecast 
area. The latest GFS has has 21z Thursday (DEC 19) 2m temps below 
zero in the north, with single digits above zero almost to the 
Kansas border.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 601 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

MVFR conditions will linger overnight into Thursday across most
all of northern Nebraska. Some areas of light snow can also be
expected. All of western and north central Nebraska will continue
to experience strong northwest winds through the day Thursday,
with gusts occasionally nearing 40 kts. 

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Thursday for 
NEZ004>006-008-022>025-035-036-056>058-069-094.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Thursday for NEZ007-010.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Thursday for NEZ009-026-037.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for NEZ027>029-
038-059-070.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Taylor