878 
FXUS64 KTSA 220404
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1004 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 845 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2022

Skies remain clear this evening with a light southerly component
to the wind in most areas. Some spots, however, have seen winds 
go calm and with dry airmass, have dropped to forecast lows. Will
lower the temps in those areas accordingly, but overall the 
remainder of the forecast for tonight is in good shape.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 203 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2022

With this latest run of the models, there has been a trend to slow the next 
system to impact the region down. This will result in a longer period of 
shower and storm chances. A few showers may be possible as early as Wednesday 
as moisture increases across the region and southwesterly flow aloft develops. 

The chances of showers and storms will increase Wednesday night into Thanksgiving 
Day as the upper level low sags into western Texas. Any storms will likely be 
confined to areas south of Interstate 40 where the instability is expected to 
be greatest. The potential for showers will continue through Saturday night
as the upper level low moves across Texas and into Arkansas. Dry weather is 
expected Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds into the region.  

Temperatures are set to be a little warmer than normal for the next 
couple of days with a return to closer to normal Thursday as a cold 
front associated with the upper level system moves through the area. 

There is still a bit of uncertainty with this forecast as models continue to 
struggle come up with a consensus solution. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1001 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2022

VFR conditions are forecast to continue through this period.
Guidance continues to suggest the chance of early morning fog
and/or lower ceilings across E OK remains low and will only
include a brief mention at KBVO per latest obs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  61  39  60 /   0   0   0  10 
FSM   34  61  36  62 /   0   0   0  10 
MLC   33  60  39  57 /   0   0   0  20 
BVO   27  60  36  59 /   0   0   0  10 
FYV   27  59  34  61 /   0   0   0  10 
BYV   33  59  36  60 /   0   0   0  10 
MKO   31  59  37  57 /   0   0   0  10 
MIO   31  57  35  59 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   33  60  38  57 /   0   0   0  10 
HHW   33  57  39  55 /   0   0   0  30 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...07