973 
FXUS61 KCLE 220011
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
711 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move southeast across the area tonight,
before high pressure builds over the region Tuesday through at
least Thursday afternoon. The next cold front will arrive
Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Only change was to replace freezing drizzle mention with light
snow showers and/or flurries tonight. Low-levels remain very 
dry and any precipitation that falls should be light and not 
very impactful.

Previous Discussion...Overall, a quiet near term period is 
anticipated. Although sustained winds are still 15 to 20 mph, 
latest observations suggest that gusts are on the decline. 
Expect this downward trend to continue over the next few hours, 
with sustained winds under 10 knots anticipated overnight 
tonight. 

A weak cold front will move southeast across the CWA tonight,
however moisture will be very limited, especially in Ohio 
zones. There may be sufficient moisture for precip across NW 
PA, but latest forecast soundings portray moisture profiles that
would favor a dry frontal passage. Can't rule out light snow 
showers with minimal accumulation or patchy freezing drizzle 
(current PoPs are around 20%) in this area, but increased cloud
cover will be the most likely outcome. Overnight lows will be 
in the 20s.

Despite the cold front passage, temperatures will increase
further Tuesday in response to high pressure building north over
the region. Expect mostly sunny to sunny skies and highs in the
40s. Tuesday night's lows will be in the upper 20s to around 30
degrees. Although these above-freezing temps will allow snowpack
to melt, river levels are not elevated so do not anticipate any
issues due to increased runoff.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Elongated surface high pressure from Quebec southward into the 
central Appalachians drifts off the east coast area through the 
short term portion of the forecast. Dry weather, and slowly 
moderating temperatures are the highlights as we get back into 
return flow while brief upper level ridging peaks Wednesday night. 
Cold front enters the fray Thursday night due to a northern stream 
upper trough tracking expeditiously along the US/Canadian border. 
Lower 40s to lower 50s Wednesday become upper 40s to mid 50s 
Thursday as the gradual warming trend continues through the
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models having some difficulty with the evolution of the split 
flow/southern stream upper level low for the end of the week into 
the weekend with some fairly dramatic swings in the solutions this 
far out. Exhibiting some significant timing issues without much run 
to run continuity for now, and think that while there will probably 
be some changes in the forecast for the Friday through Sunday 
period, it remains likely this will be a decent chance for 
precipitation that is needed outside of snow belt areas. 
Temperatures trend back towards normal through the end of the week 
and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this evening with primarily VFR to
persist through the TAF period. Only exception will be at ERI
tonight where a brief period of MVFR ceilings are possible.

Winds have weakened to 10 knots or less, remaining generally out
of the southwest. South to southwest winds of 5 to 10 knots will
persist through the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain showers Thursday into
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves subside during the evening and overnight period with 
brief northwesterly winds tonight, then back around to the southwest 
Tuesday 10-20kts where nearshore waters will be less than 2 feet 
from the western basin to Cleveland, and 1-3 feet east through NW 
PA. Winds ease to 10-15kts Wednesday night/Thursday out of the south 
with waves less than 2 feet. Cold front late Thursday night brings 
winds around to the northwest, then back westerly through the
weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for 
     LEZ146>149.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Kahn/Maines
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...26