567 
FXUS62 KFFC 062358
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
658 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 216 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022

High pressure ridge axis at the surface and in the mid levels 
remain across portions of north and central GA. Both these axis 
should remain in place through the period. The ridge at the surface 
will strengthen as a strong/sprawling high pressure system builds 
from the north. A stalled frontal boundary stretches from the 
eastern Great Lakes back through southeast Texas. The boundary 
should dissipate sometime later tonight or early Monday as the high 
builds in. Temps will remain 10 to 20 degrees above normal through 
the period, with little, if any chances for precip after this 
afternoon.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022

Things are still on track through day 7 so no major changes made in 
the forecast. Surface high pressure dropping from Canada into New 
England will lead a CAD wedge to build southward into our area from 
Tuesday into Wednesday. This will begin to take the edge off the 
record warmth of the short term as noticeably drier and a bit cooler 
airmass builds southwestward. Highs will begin to dip from the mid 
to upper 70s Tuesday into the 60s and 70s by Wednesday with more 
seasonable lows by Wednesday morning as well.

Interest then turns to the organizing low pressure system over the 
western Atlantic. Models are surprisingly in good agreement through the 
end of next week. The GFS and ECMWF both show this tropical system 
strengthening as it is forced westward toward Florida beneath the 
aforementioned New England high from Wednesday into Thursday. 
Locally, initial impacts remain limited to breezy easterly winds on 
Thursday. Beyond this, this system appears likely to be lifted north 
to northeastward by as a deepening trough and associated strong cold 
front drop southeastward out of the upper and Mid MS river valley. If 
this timing stays like this the tropical low will move up the 
eastern seaboard Friday becoming centered just off the MD/DE/NJ 
coast by Sat morning. There is still a little bit of uncertainty 
regarding the exact track of this system, but its looking more and 
more certain with every model run. Will maintain trend of upward 
trending chance PoPs across the eastern half of the CWA Friday.

In any case, these remnants should quickly exit northeastward away 
from the area by Saturday as the strong cold front clears the area 
and ushers in a significantly colder airmass by next weekend.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022

VFR to start but expecting IFR to possible LIFR conditions to
build in at most TAF sites later tonight after 06Z. Low clouds
and fog will build in from the east before sunrise. Cigs expected
to be in 005-006 range but could see even lower obs in the 002-003
range. FG likely as well, with vsbys down to 1SM, possibly lower
in some locations. Expect clearing through the morning with MVFR
to VFR conditions by 15-16Z at most sites. Winds will at least be
light, mostly from the east, but VRB at times.

//ATL Confidence...Avi Update...
Medium confidence in timing of morning cigs/vsbys (see above).
High all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  81  62  73 /  10  10   0   0 
Atlanta         66  81  64  74 /   0  10  10   0 
Blairsville     60  78  56  72 /  10  10  10   0 
Cartersville    65  82  61  76 /   0  10  10   0 
Columbus        66  83  64  80 /  10   0   0   0 
Gainesville     66  80  62  72 /  10  10  10   0 
Macon           63  83  63  79 /  10   0   0   0 
Rome            64  82  61  79 /  10  10  10   0 
Peachtree City  65  81  62  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Vidalia         64  83  64  77 /  20   0   0   0 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Lusk