077 
FXUS64 KMEG 062343
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
543 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

A stalled frontal boundary is oriented SW to NE across our CWA 
this afternoon, causing a stark cloud cover gradient from sunny 
Jonesboro to overcast Tupelo. This front will continue to linger 
overnight, insulating the southeastern portion of the CWA and 
creating a 10+ degree temperature gradient across the boundary. It
should start lifting north as a warm front by late tonight, 
sparking warm advection showers across the Mid-South and possibly 
a few isolated thunderstorms overnight. Convective coverage will 
likely be very spotty in nature, so PoPs are in the 20-30% range 
through tomorrow morning. The excess moisture combined with light 
winds will also lead to patchy fog overnight across the area, some
of which could become dense.

The warm front should lift fully off to the northeast by tomorrow 
evening, marking the return of dry conditions for the next several 
days. Temperatures throughout the area should sit well above 
normal for most of the week due to anomalously strong midlevel 
ridging over the Tennessee Valley. We may have a weak and dry back
door cold front move in Wednesday evening which will keep areas 
east of the Mississippi River several degrees cooler than to the 
west of the river overnight into Thursday morning. This small-
scale pattern disruption will be overshadowed by a much stronger 
cold front approaching from the northern Plains on Friday. 

Guidance is suggesting FROPA timing to be some time Friday 
morning to afternoon. The Arctic airmass behind this front will 
plunge temperatures back down into the 30s overnight Friday into 
Saturday morning, with sub-freezing low temperatures expected 
through the weekend. Despite the strength of the front, it lacks 
moisture out ahead of it. As of right now, we have a dry forecast 
through the end of the weekend, but will need to monitor trends to
account for the possibility of pre-frontal showers late week.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

Ceilings are starting to lower and will continue to lower
throughout the period. The low level moisture is continuing to
edge through MEM with MVFR conditions prevailing. 

MEM and JBR will have brief periods of IFR during FROPA, late
tonight at JBR and early Monday morning at MEM. Scattered showers
expected at all but JBR, however, JBR will have the lowest 
visibility with fog from 07-10z, and could be dense at times. 
Precipitation will keep the flight categories lower with a lack of
confidence in improvement to MVFR at MEM until Monday afternoon at
the earliest.

DNM

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...DNM