182 
FXUS63 KTOP 062332
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
532 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

Key Points:

- Dry and seasonal through Monday, chance of rain Tuesday 

- Warm and windy Wednesday and Thursday

- Strong system brings precip and colder air late week

Water Vapor satellite this afternoon show a zonal to slight 
southwest flow aloft across the central Plains with an upstream mid 
level low off the British Columbia coast at 19Z. At the surface, 
high pressure was building southward from the northern high Plains 
with north to northeast winds across the cwa. Not much in the way of 
any cold advection as temperatures have risen into the low to mid 
60s across northeast Kansas. 

Tonight winds will decrease this evening as the high builds into 
northern Kansas, then as it moves off to the east late tonight winds 
will become easterly and increase to around 10 mph by sunrise. Lows 
tonight will cool into the 30s. 

Monday temperatures will just be a few degrees cooler than today with 
easterly winds off the surface high. Monday night return flow starts 
late in the night and have scaled back precipitation chances as 
moisture will be lacking. Better chances will be Tuesday morning 
when moisture increases along with isentropic lift over the warm 
front forecast across south central Kansas Tuesday morning. Highs 
Tuesday will warm back into the mid and upper 60s as the warm front 
lifts north of the Kansas border by afternoon. 

Ensembles and deterministic models suggest a tightening pressure 
gradient across the Plains Tuesday with a deepening surface low in 
the lee of the Rockies. Strongest winds (Advisory level) are 
expected Wednesday and Thursday as the surface cyclone deepens as 
the mid level trough moves across the Rockies. There are still 
differences with the timing of the cold front and the cold advection 
behind the front, so Thursday's temperatures are likely to be on the 
warm side of the guidance spread in the 70s. Wednesday is still 
shaping up to be the warmest day with highs firmly in the 70s. There 
may be a brief period of mixed precipitation Thursday night.

Cold temperatures are expected for Friday through Sunday with highs 
below normal in the 30s and 40s and lows in the teens and 20s. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 529 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

VFR prevails at terminals as easterly winds calm below 10 kts aft
00Z before increasing from 10 to 15 kts sustained aft 15Z.
Increasing clouds from the southwest likely impact sites aft 21Z 
as a band of low end VFR stratus develops. 

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...22