516 
FXUS63 KEAX 062332
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
532 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 339 PM CST SUN NOV 6 2022

Key messages:

- There is a chance for a few strong storms possible Thursday.

Discussion:

A upper trough moving through the southern Canadian Plains has 
forced a weak cold front through the CWA this morning/early 
afternoon. This has veered winds from south to north however little 
cold air resides behind the front. In addition, quasi-zonal flow 
aloft has actually aided in temperatures rising above normal with 
highs in the low to mid 60s. Tonight, surface high pressure will 
begin to build into the northern Plains tightening the pressure 
gradient across the area...keeping temperatures in the mid 30s to 
low 40s. High pressure will skirt the forecast area tomorrow with 
weak mixing. This is expected to lead to a cooler day tomorrow with 
highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Tuesday, a upper level trough 
will dig into the Pacific Northwest this will cause downstream 
ridging across the region. In addition, modest SSE flow at the 
surface should allow temperatures to rise into the 60s to near 70s. 
There is the chance for a few warm air advection showers on Tuesday 
across eastern Kansas and western MO however, moisture return looks 
to be slow. Wednesday, the area will continue to be under the 
influence of upper level ridging with strong WAA at the surface. 
This will allow highs to rise near record highs in the mid to upper 
70s. 

Beyond Wednesday there are some timing difference amongst models on 
how progressive the aforementioned upper level trough will be as it 
moves from the Pacific Northwest tuesday to the northern Plains by 
Thursday. The EC is more progressive and consequently 6-12 hours 
faster than its GFS counterpart moving this trough into the northern 
Plains. The EC solution would bring precipitation to the area 
earlier in the day Thursday while the slower GFS would hold off 
until late Thursday into Thursday night. The general trend has been 
slower with this system, and will models now developing a closed low 
in the base of the rough that would favor the slower solution of the 
GFS. Consequently, Thursday should again be warm with highs in the 
70s. Storms are expected with the associated cold front with this 
upper level system on Thursday. Although still several days out, it 
does appear that a low CAPE, high shear environment will be in 
place. Consequently, a few strong storm can not be ruled out at this 
time. One certainty, is temperatures will be much cooler on Friday 
behind the front with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Saturday, 
high pressure is expected to build in the area making for a calm but 
very cool day with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST SUN NOV 6 2022

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period. Winds
will shift out of the east by mid-morning Monday with gusts
upwards of 20 knots. Dry conditions are expected until Tuesday
when chances for a few scattered storms increases.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Klaus