849 
FXUS61 KBUF 062331
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
631 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will exit the area this evening with showers ending 
from west to east. A secondary dry cold front will cross area Monday 
and usher in much cooler air for Tuesday, with below normal 
temperatures for a day. This will be quickly followed by another 
significant warmup for the second half of the work week. Much colder 
air is expected to arrive next weekend following a strong cold front 
that moves through the area Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will move east of the area this evening, but not before 
producing some additional showers mainly across the eastern Lake 
Ontario region. The best deep moisture available for the advancing 
front is found east of Lake Ontario. The combination of low level 
frontal convergence and terrain forcing will produce the most 
frequent showers and highest QPF across the southern Tug Hill and 
western foothills of the Adirondacks. Otherwise clear to partly 
cloudy skies will be common across the western counties.

Monday...a secondary cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes 
in the afternoon. This front has no moisture or synoptic scale 
support and will cross the region dry with just a modest increase in 
post-frontal clouds late in the day. It will turn quite breezy ahead 
of the front however, with gusts of 20-25 knots common across the 
entire region and up to 30+ knots locally at the northeast end of 
Lake Erie and east end of Lake Ontario with enhanced channeling down 
the lakes and steeper low level lapse rates over and downstream of 
the lakes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough responsible for the cold frontal passage 
from Sunday night will have its axis lying across the Northeast 
by Monday night. While the trough exits the far eastern United 
States, upper level ridging will build across the Great Lakes 
and push east towards the Atlantic Seaboard by Wednesday night. 
This being said, an elongated area of surface high pressure 
spanning across the Upper and Central Great Lakes Monday night 
will eventually east and then southeast across southern Canada 
and into the New England coastline by Wednesday night. Overall 
this will lead to a couple of days of continual dry weather.

Otherwise the only other thing of interest in this period is the 
slightly cooler temperatures. Initially due to the upper level 
trough's placement, colder air will spread across the region (850mb 
temperatures dropping a few degrees below zero) Monday night with 
overnight lows averaging near normal (range of 30s). Some modulation 
in temperatures will occur across the region with the high overhead 
and therefore expect temperatures near normal Tuesday (highs in the 
upper 40s to low 50s) and slightly above normal Wednesday (highs in 
the mid to upper 50s).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure will exit out to sea by Thursday. There will 
be a cold front (tight H850 thermal boundary) that will sag south 
towards the Lower Lakes over the course of the day. Latest guidance 
still suggesting that this will hang up just to the north of Lake 
Ontario. That said...we should see another dry day for most 
locations but a few showers could sneak into the St. Lawrence River 
valley which will be closer to the thermal boundary mentioned above. 

Otherwise...southerly flow will aid to nudge temperatures well into 
the 60s on Thursday.  

Chances for showers then increase Friday, but its 'likely' that the 
first half of the day will be dry. This will all depend on the 
trough approaching from the west (cold front) and its eventual 
interaction with potential tropical moisture. When/if this occurs, 
it would bring best chance of rain to our region late Friday into 
Friday night. Given lack of consistency in models, will keep 
continuity with nothing more than chance pops with this update.  

A sharp cold front will then cross Great Lakes Friday night/Saturday 
bringing in some much colder air. It would then become cold enough 
for lake effect through the weekend, especially east and southeast 
of the lakes. It is also advertised become cold enough to have a mix 
of rain/snow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will move east of the area this evening, but not before 
producing some additional showers across the eastern portion of the 
area. The most concentrated area of showers will focus across the 
southern Tug Hill and western foothills of the adirondacks, where a 
few of the heavier showers will produce local/brief MVFR/IFR VSBY. 

Any remaining showers will end from west to east this evening, 
leaving clearing skies and VFR overnight. A secondary cold front 
will move south across the area Monday afternoon, but this front is 
moisture starved and will cross the region dry with widespread VFR. 
It will turn quite windy Monday ahead of the secondary cold front, 
with gusts of 20-25 knots areawide, and up to 30+ knots at the 
northeast end of Lake Erie and east end of Lake Ontario.

Outlook...  

Tuesday through Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WSW winds will increase later tonight and Monday ahead of a 
secondary cold front that will move south across the eastern Great 
Lakes in the afternoon. This will bring another round of Small Craft 
Advisory conditions to Lake Erie late tonight through Monday, and on 
Lake Ontario Monday through Monday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for LEZ020-
         040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 1 AM EST 
         Tuesday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday 
         for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday 
         for LOZ045.
         Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for 
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock