040 
FXUS62 KRAH 062010
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
310 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered offshore will keep a warm and humid flow into 
central North Carolina through tonight. A cold front will drop into 
the area from the northwest Monday afternoon, and settle to our 
south Monday night, as cooler high pressure builds in from the 
north. Gusty northeast winds are expected late Monday night through 
mid week, as strong low pressure develops off the Southeast coast. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Sunday...

One more evening/night of very mild temps and dewpoints within a 
humid prefrontal SE and S flow. Scattered showers and a couple of 
storms continue to stream NNE over the W Piedmont this afternoon, 
drawing on 1.5"+ PW within a band of moderate SBCAPE of 1000-1500 
J/kg and amid surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s. This 
convection should stay well W of Hwy 1, as the low levels remain dry 
with lower PWs over the eastern CWA, and this activity should 
dwindle with loss of heating by early evening. We'll maintain 
streaks of high cloudiness (along a weak and exiting shear axis 
aloft) early tonight along with areas of stratocu, but as the high 
clouds depart overnight, clouds should be limited enough to foster 
good radiational cooling and fog development, with increasing low 
level stability after nightfall as surface dewpoints hold in the 60s 
to near 70 with nearly calm surface air. The fog threat will be 
greatest S and E of the Triangle where clouds will be fewer, 
although the showers in the Triad will likely result in low 
stratus/fog there as well overnight as the high clouds exit. Will 
mention the fog threat in the hazardous weather outlook, and a dense 
fog advisory may be needed for a portion of central NC later 
tonight, once a primary area of concern can be identified. Expect 
lows from around 60 to the mid 60s. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 
As of 249 AM Sunday... 

The cold front will finally make a push across the mountains on 
Monday and move through NC Monday night. The front will be displaced 
from any appreciable mid/upper level forcing and in all likelihood 
it will be a dry frontal passage, but some guidance is hinting at 
some enhanced pre-frontal moisture convergence Monday afternoon 
across the northern Coastal Plain and I've included some low PoPs 
(15-20 percent) in those areas. Monday will be the final warm day of 
this recent stretch with highs once again climbing into the low to 
mid 80s. However temperatures will drop rapidly behind the front, 
all the way into the upper 40s to mid 50s by daybreak Tuesday. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 226 PM Sunday... 

Pattern aloft through the extended: An anomalous mid-level ridge 
will amplify across the eastern two thirds of the CONUS Tuesday 
through Thursday. An upper-trough will then approach late this week 
drawing anomalous moisture associated with an offshore low northward 
into the southeast this weekend. Troughing will then persist across 
the eastern US into early next week.

Tuesday through Wednesday: Canadian high pressure will shift over 
New England on Tuesday extending increasingly nerly flow down into 
central NC.  Models continue to suggest good mixing with a strong 
sfc pressure gradient both Tuesday and Wednesday. As such, expect 
gusty nerly winds at times both days, especially across the 
Sandhills and Coastal Plain.  Increasing CAA Tuesday and Wednesday 
will return temperatures to near to just below normal in the lower 
to mid 60s during the day and mid to upper 40s at night. Otherwise, 
Tuesday and Wednesday will remain dry under the increasingly robust 
mid-level ridge.  

Thursday through Monday: Latest run to run model guidance has come 
somewhat into better agreement with respect to the evolution of an 
area of low pressure expected to deepen off eastern Florida later 
this week. The GFS/GEFS and ECMWF/EPS both simulate the low 
retrograding westward across Florida into the eastern Gulf Thursday, 
before getting pulled northward into the Carolinas by the 
aforementioned upper trough Friday through late Saturday. While 
there are still timing differences to be sorted out over the next 
few days, the latest consensus is beginning to pinpoint Friday into 
Saturday with the highest chances for rain across our area (PWATs 
rise to above 2 inches or ~350% of normal Friday morning through 
early Saturday morning). As such, trended the POPs higher in this 
temporal period, with a general tapering off from west to east as 
the low pulls north of the area later Saturday. We will continue to 
monitor and make further adjustments to timing, rain chances, QPF, 
and potential impacts as we get closer to the event and confidence 
increases. A pattern change is expected behind the departing low, as 
a strong cold front will push through ushering in dry weather but 
below normal highs in the lower to mid 50s and overnight lows in the 
lower to mid 30s Sunday and Monday. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM Sunday... 

Warm moist air will flow over central NC through Mon morning, esp in 
our west sections, before a cold front drops in from the NW starting 
late morning Mon. The most adverse aviation weather today/tonight 
will occur in the west (INT/GSO), although late-night fog remains a 
threat in the eastern terminals tonight into Mon morning.

INT/GSO: Occasional showers and perhaps a storm will continue at 
INT, with slightly less coverage near GSO, through the afternoon 
until early evening, with vsbys briefly going MVFR in rain. Current 
MVFR cigs will lift this afternoon, becoming VFR for a short time 
after 21z before becoming IFR/LIFR with fog and low cigs a good bet 
after 05z. Slow improvement to VFR is expected between 14z and 17z. 
Surface winds from the S and SSW will be mostly 10 kts or less, with 
a few gusts to 15 mph possible this afternoon especially near 
showers/storms. Winds become light/variable this evening, then light 
from the N and NNE after 16z Mon.

RDU/FAY/RWI, mostly VFR conditions should continue through this 
evening, with little to no rain chance. But MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys 
are expected after 06z as fog and stratus develops. Slow improvement 
to VFR will occur between 13z and 15z Mon. Surface winds will be 
from the S and SE 8-12 kts through early evening before becoming 
light and variable, lasting through midday Mon. 

Looking beyond 18z Mon, a mostly dry cold front passage Mon 
afternoon will bring a NW-to-SE shift of winds to be from the NE, 
and perhaps some gusts late in the day as colder air pours into the 
area from the N. These brisk winds from the NE with occasional gusts 
will continue from late Mon night through Fri, within a tight 
pressure gradient between cool high pressure to the north and a 
developing low pressure system off the Southeast coast. As this NE 
flow pulls Atlantic moisture into the area, periods of MVFR cigs are 
possible Wed into Fri, mainly in the SE, with rain chances 
increasing Thu night/Fri. LLWS can't be ruled out each night Mon 
night through at least Wed night. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Max and High Minimum temperatures through Mon, November 7:
                       
              GSO                  RDU                  FAY

11/6: 80 (1975)/65 (1938)  83 (2003)/65 (2015)  85 (1961)/71 (2003)
11/7: 78 (1938)/61 (1938)  80 (2008)/61 (2003)  81 (1975)/65 (2003)

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$ 
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield 
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Leins 
LONG TERM...Luchetti 
AVIATION...Hartfield 
CLIMATE...MWS