761 
FXUS61 KBUF 061730
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1230 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will exit the area this evening with showers ending 
from west to east. A secondary dry cold front will cross area Monday 
and usher in much cooler air for Tuesday, with below normal 
temperatures for a day. This will be quickly followed by another 
significant warmup for the second half of the work week. Much colder 
air is expected to arrive next weekend following a strong cold front 
that moves through the area Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid level trough will advance east across Ontario and Quebec 
tonight through Monday, with the northern track of the system 
keeping the majority of the large scale ascent in the form of DPVA 
and height falls, along with upper level jet dynamics well north of 
the US/Canadian border. This will leave a pair of cold fronts that 
are largely orphaned from upper level support to cross our area over 
the next 24 hours.

The first cold front will move east of the area this afternoon and 
evening, but not before producing some additional showers mainly 
across the eastern Lake Ontario region. The best deep moisture 
available for the advancing front is found east of Lake Ontario. The 
combination of low level frontal convergence and terrain forcing 
will produce the most frequent showers and highest QPF across the 
southern Tug Hill and western foothills of the Adirondacks. 
Meanwhile farther west, a few scattered showers will continue 
through early evening from the western Southern Tier into the 
Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes. 

Any remaining showers will end from west to east later this evening, 
followed by clearing overnight as a much drier post-frontal airmass 
arrives.

Monday a secondary cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes in 
the afternoon. This front has no moisture or synoptic scale support 
and will cross the region dry with just a modest increase in post-
frontal clouds late in the day. It will turn quite breezy ahead of 
the front however, with gusts of 20-25 knots common across the 
entire region and up to 30+ knots locally at the northeast end of 
Lake Erie and east end of Lake Ontario with enhanced channeling 
down the lakes and steeper low level lapse rates over and downstream 
of the lakes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 
Upper level trough responsible for the cold frontal passage 
from Sunday night will have its axis lying across the Northeast 
by Monday night. While the trough exits the far eastern United 
States, upper level ridging will build across the Great Lakes 
and push east towards the Atlantic Seaboard by Wednesday night. 
This being said, an elongated area of surface high pressure 
spanning across the Upper and Central Great Lakes Monday night 
will eventually east and then southeast across southern Canada 
and into the New England coastline by Wednesday night. Overall 
this will lead to a couple of days of continual dry weather.

Otherwise the only other thing of interest in this period is the 
slightly cooler temperatures. Initially due to the upper level 
trough's placement, colder air will spread across the region (850mb 
temperatures dropping a few degrees below zero) Monday night with 
overnight lows averaging near normal (range of 30s). Some modulation 
in temperatures will occur across the region with the high overhead 
and therefore expect temperatures near normal Tuesday (highs in the 
upper 40s to low 50s) and slightly above normal Wednesday (highs in 
the mid to upper 50s).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 
Late this week there will be increasing chances for rain as cut
off system over the Atlantic off the southeast coast begins to 
lift north as southerly flow increases between high off the east
coast and approaching low pressure and cold front over the 
Great Lakes. This could even take on some tropical 
characteristics before it moves northward, but the jury is still
out on that per the latest outlook from NHC. If this system 
does lift farther north, it would bring best chance of rain to 
our region late Friday into Friday night. Given lack of 
consistency in models, leaned toward continuity with nothing 
more than chance pops. 

Then, at least at the moment, there is decent agreement in primary 
low crossing Great Lakes to end the week with associated sfc cold 
front moving in late Friday into Saturday. It would then become cold 
enough for lake effect next weekend, especially east and southeast 
of the lakes. Would also be eventually cold enough to have a mix of 
rain/snow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will move east of the area this afternoon and evening, 
but not before producing some additional showers across the eastern 
portion of the area. The most concentrated area of showers will 
focus across the southern Tug Hill and western foothills of the 
adirondacks, where a few of the heavier showers will produce 
local/brief MVFR/IFR VSBY. Farther west, a few scattered showers 
will continue through early evening from the western Southern Tier 
into the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes.

Any remaining showers will end from west to east later this evening, 
leaving clearing skies and VFR overnight. A secondary cold front 
will move south across the area Monday afternoon, but this front is 
moisture starved and will cross the region dry with widespread VFR. 
It will turn quite windy Monday ahead of the secondary cold front, 
with gusts of 20-25 knots areawide, and up to 30+ knots at the 
northeast end of Lake Erie and east end of Lake Ontario.

Outlook...  

Tuesday through Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WSW winds will increase later tonight and Monday ahead of a 
secondary cold front that will move south across the eastern Great 
Lakes in the afternoon. This will bring another round of Small Craft 
Advisory conditions to Lake Erie late tonight through Monday, and on 
Lake Ontario Monday through Monday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...JLA 
AVIATION...Hitchcock 
MARINE...Hitchcock