534 
FXUS63 KSGF 061724
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1124 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

...AVIATION UPDATE...

Key Messages:

1. Above normal temperatures will continue through the first half
of the upcoming week.

2. Some rain chances in the west late Monday night into Tuesday.

3. Shower potential Thursday into Friday.

4. Additional precipitation chances later in the week and turning
cooler. May see some light wintry precipitation Thursday night 
into Friday morning, however confidence is still low.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Sun Nov 6 2022

It's been a chilly start to the day, with temperatures in the 
low to mid 40s observed across the area during the early morning 
hours. Temperatures are expected to warm up later this afternoon,
with above normal highs in the mid to upper 60s across the area, 
and a few locations reaching 70. This would be warmer than what we
observed yesterday, and around 5-10 degrees above the 
climatological normal.

Satellite imagery shows clear skies across the area, with the
exception of some high level clouds. This should remain the case 
through today and into tonight before HREF guidance shows an 
increase in cloud cover as a result of Gulf moisture increasing 
into the area.

Tonight should yield overnight lows in the 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Sun Nov 6 2022

Temperatures on Monday should be slightly cooler than today,
yet are still expected to be above normal, with afternoon highs 
ranging in the 60s.

A low level jet is progged to set up in the Plains, bringing
chances for precipitation in the western portion of the CWA Monday
night into Tuesday morning. The majority of the precipitation
should stay to our west and northwest, but enough ensemble 
members are highlighting the potential for low-end precipitation
amounts, and NBM probability of QPF >0.1 inch also highlights a 
20-25% chance in this area. Therefore, decided to stick with the 
NBM guidance of 20-30% pops for southeast KS and southwest MO. 

WPC Cluster Analysis shows agreement in an upper level trough 
over the western CONUS propagating eastward beginning Wednesday 
into Wednesday night, and several ensemble members are 
highlighting the return of precipitation chances to the area 
Thursday into Friday morning as a result of this system. There is 
a chance for rain transitioning over to light snow late Thursday 
night, however there's still plenty of model uncertainty regarding
the timing and precip type, so confidence remains low at this 
point. 

Behind this system, a Canadian airmass will begin to filter into
the area towards the end of the week and into the weekend,
bringing below normal temperatures with highs only expected to 
reach the 40s. These below normal temperatures are highlighted in
both the 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day CPC outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Winds will be
breezy on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Titus