216 
FXUS64 KAMA 061722
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1122 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 146 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

Similar temps today and warming tomorrow. Fog may be possible
Monday morning, particularly in the south, and showers may form
Monday night into Tuesday morning in the southeast.

Satellite shows high clouds streaming over most of the Panhandles
early this morning. The clouds are helping to keep moisture and
heat around the area. Amarillo is at 55 degrees this morning,
compared to last night's 30 degrees at this time. A cold front is
in southern Nebraska to northwestern Kansas and is expected to
continue shifting southward into the Panhandles this morning. This
will push the lee side low southeast as well as clear clouds out.
With very little CAA from zonal flow aloft, the front will cause 
only minor cooling in high temps for today. The biggest notation 
will be the breezy north winds during the late morning to early 
afternoon hours. With clear skies tonight though, temps will be
able to drop early on in the evening. Flow aloft will turn to
southwesterly by late today due to a closed low digging southward
along the Pacific coast and high pressure building in the
southeast CONUS. This turn of winds will bring Pacific moisture
overhead and bring some high clouds over parts of the Panhandles.
As the column saturates overnight, there is some possibility of
low clouds developing depending on the turning of the surface
winds. If winds become more easterly and can bring an upslope
flow, some low to very low clouds may form, particularly in the
northern and central Panhandles according to hi-res CAMs. The
southern TX Panhandle may be more in line for seeing fog as the
high clouds aren't predicted by models. With short range models
still disagreeing on the amount of turning in the surface winds,
for now have left fog out of the forecast for early Monday morning
until better agreement can be seen for locations. 

The beginning of the work week looks to start off with a warming
trend as the surface winds continue to turn southeasterly and
bring Gulf moisture into the picture again. With high pressure
continuing to build in the southeast CONUS, a warm front is pushed
towards the Panhandles. Models are highlighting a mid-level 
shortwave to come through the area during the overnight hours
Monday night into Tuesday morning. This could kick off some 
showers and thunderstorms, particularly focused in the 
southeastern Panhandles. Timing will be everything for the lift 
and moisture to make the showers happen. Forecast soundings show
some elevated instability possible for bringing some isolated
thunder, but severe weather does not look favorable. 

Beat

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 146 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

By Tuesday the FA is progged to be under southwest flow aloft with
a positively tilted, high amplitude, H25 trough with an axis 
running from Nunavut, Canada, southwest through far northern CA. 
Going into Tuesday night a closed H5 low pressure system, 
associated with the upper level trough, will move on coast over 
much of central to northern CA per the 00Z GFS run. The EC has the
center of the low further north and the CMC has more of an open 
wave H5 trough with a clear divergence in solutions at this time.
This system is progged to eventually send a large cold air mass through
much of the US. The path of this closed low will play a big part 
in temperatures Thursday onward as well as precipitation chances. 
The general consensus is that the base of the H5 trough will
traverse the FA as the closed low moves across the central to 
northern Great Plains. With the low staying more north, 
temperatures Thursday are trending warmer in the NBM as well as 
keeping the FA mainly dry. 

Tuesday, high pressure over the Lower Mississippi River Valley
into the Southeast will help pull lots of low level moisture up 
into the Panhandles with 60 degree dewpoints to move in across 
much of the central to eastern portions of the combined 
Panhandles. Even Cimarron County in the western Oklahoma Panhandle
could see dewpoints as high as 50. Bufkit soundings depict a very
moist lower level with possible fog and low clouds through the 
late morning into the early afternoon on Tuesday. Showers and 
thunderstorms are looking very unlikely during the day Tuesday as 
a decent upper level disturbance would be needed to for elevated 
activity as there is a large cap in place around H7. Conditions 
are looking to be mostly grudged in by clouds with a drizzle 
possible through much of the day early on. 

Wednesday afternoon is looking to be quite breezy if not windy for
much of the FA as a leeside low in eastern CO deepens. Will leave
NBM 90th percentile winds in for the forecast. However, there may
be some room to go up in wind speeds, possibly leading to wind
highlights for Wed afternoon. A Pacific front is progged to move 
into the FA going into Thursday pushing much of the Gulf moisture 
off to the east as the aforementioned leeside low gets ejected to 
the northwest. This appears to be slowing down the possible CAA 
that will be encompassing much of the north-central to 
northwestern US. In fact, the CAA appears to want to move east
faster than it does south. The NBM has already trended warmer for
temperatures on Thu. With the Pacific front pushing moisture east
any PoPs given late Thu are now well east of the FA with the 
newest runs. 

Above freezing overnight lows will be in place Tuesday night and
Wednesday night. With the next system, the Pacific front, and
arctic front lows Thursday night through the weekend are looking
to be below freezing for much of the area once again. Daytime
highs for Friday through Sunday are progged to be in the 50s with
the current run of the NBM. 

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

Winds out of the north will gradually turn easterly during the
daytime today. Winds will be in the 15 to 20 kt range and will
slowly diminish to near 10 kts after sunset. Low clouds and/or fog
is possible near or after 12z. At this time, it looks like low
clouds are more likely, so have begun adding in lower cigs with
this issuance. Not confident enough to add MVFR or lower cigs at 
this time, but they may be needed in future issuances. Winds will 
turn southeasterly in the morning hours.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                65  38  69  54 /   0   0   0  10 
Beaver OK                  65  36  68  51 /   0   0   0  20 
Boise City OK              62  33  65  48 /   0   0   0  10 
Borger TX                  67  39  72  57 /   0   0   0  10 
Boys Ranch TX              67  36  70  54 /   0   0   0  10 
Canyon TX                  67  38  70  54 /   0   0   0  10 
Clarendon TX               67  41  68  57 /   0   0   0  20 
Dalhart TX                 64  33  66  49 /   0   0   0  10 
Guymon OK                  65  34  68  52 /   0   0   0  10 
Hereford TX                69  38  71  56 /   0   0   0  10 
Lipscomb TX                66  36  69  53 /   0   0   0  20 
Pampa TX                   65  39  69  55 /   0   0   0  20 
Shamrock TX                68  40  69  56 /   0   0   0  30 
Wellington TX              70  41  70  57 /   0   0   0  30 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...05