216 
FXUS63 KTOP 061703
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1103 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

Key Points:

- Dry and seasonal through Monday

- Warm and windy Tuesday and Wednesday with storm chances Tuesday

- Strong system brings precip and colder air late week

08Z water vapor imagery shows the mean westerlies through the 
central CONUS, leaving our area within zonal flow aloft. Three 
circulations are noted to the north: one in Ontario, one over 
Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and one off the coast of British Columbia. 
The second of these has an associated sfc low centered in Manitoba, 
leaving a frontal boundary through the northern and central Plains. 
This will have little effect on our weather today, aside from a wind 
shift to the north this afternoon after the weak front drops south 
of the area. Highs will reach the upper 50s to mid 60s, coolest 
north of I-70 where CAA will be slightly stronger, but still 
seasonal nonetheless.

Heading into Monday and especially Tuesday, the third of the 
aforementioned circulations will amplify and deepen into a trough 
off the west coast of the CONUS, setting up southwest upper flow 
over us while ridging develops over the southeastern states. Models 
have trended slower on the moisture advection north on Monday with 
dew points staying in the 20s and 30s, and while this should still 
be enough low-level moisture with cool enough temperatures to limit 
fire weather concerns, this may be something to watch for if the 
moisture slows down further. The bulk of the moisture and warm air 
surge north on Tuesday, and it looks as though most showers and 
storms may not arrive until Tuesday as opposed to late Monday night. 
The NAM and GFS are leaning more heavily toward that trend, but the 
ECMWF/CMC are still hinting at a few showers after midnight Monday 
night. In any case, MUCAPE of up to 700 J/kg on Tuesday would 
support some elevated storms, but prospects for severe weather 
appear low at this time -- especially since there are still notable 
differences in how much moisture we'll have to work with.

The trough advances east across the Rockies mid-week, resulting in a 
tightening pressure gradient to continue bringing warm air into the 
area on Wednesday. This looks like the warmest day this week with 
highs solidly into the 70s area-wide. Lee cyclogenesis occurs by 
Thursday with the cold front progged to move through during the day. 
Timing differences in the arrival of cold air behind the system will 
need to be worked out to accurately determine our chances of storms 
vs stratiform rain and whether we'll see any snow. Recent trends 
have been for a slower arrival of the cold front with a low chance 
for snow late Thursday into Friday. That said, the timing of the 
front has gone back and forth enough in the last couple of days that 
I'd like to see more consistency before latching onto any particular 
idea. In any case, temperatures look to drop well below normal by 
the end of the week with lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1103 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds north around
10kts at the start of the forecast to veer to the northeast by 00Z
and decrease to less than 10kts. Winds become east by 11Z and
increase to near 10kts by 15Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...53