916 
FXUS61 KBUF 061445
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
945 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area this afternoon, with a few 
scattered showers in Western NY and more numerous showers east of 
Lake Ontario. The rain will end from west to east later this 
afternoon and evening. A secondary dry cold front crosses the area 
late tonight into Monday morning bringing a brief return to more 
seasonable temperatures by Tuesday. Otherwise, expect above normal 
temperatures along with high pressure providing another prolonged 
stretch of dry weather through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Radar imagery showing a few bands of showers moving from the Finger 
Lakes into the eastern Lake Ontario region this morning. A mid level 
shortwave and right entrance region jet dynamics will move quickly 
away from the region and into Quebec through early afternoon, 
leaving behind several weak cold frontal segments moving from west 
to east across the area today. The first cold frontal segment will 
continue to move into the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon 
and slow down as mid level flow becomes more parallel to the 
boundary. This will continue to support the best coverage of showers 
through the afternoon east of Lake Ontario. A second cold frontal 
segment will move into Western NY this afternoon and may support a 
few more spotty showers as it moves from west to east across the 
area. Western NY has already broken out into partial sunshine, with 
skies averaging partly sunny for the rest of the day from the 
Genesee Valley west, and mostly cloudy east of Lake Ontario. 
Otherwise, well above normal temperatures will continue with highs 
in the 60s, and some low 70s for the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes 
region.

Any lingering light showers push east of the area this evening as 
much drier air associated with high pressure well off to the 
northwest starts to build into western and northcentral NY. A 
secondary cold front will move into the region later tonight, 
however will be precipitation free. A much cooler night tonight with 
lows ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s. To keep this in 
perspective however, this is still very close to what our daytime 
highs should be this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
For a change, cooler is the main theme along with dry weather. Broad 
upper ridge builds from southern Plains to the Great Lakes yielding 
a stout sfc high of 1040+ mb from central Canada to the Great Lakes 
then eventually building over the northeast and New England. We'll 
be in the wake of secondary cold front on Monday with highs in the 
mid 50s to lower 60s. A fresh northwest breeze could result in gusts 
toward 30 mph along the south shore of Lake Ontario. Despite full 
sunshine, coolest day early this week will be Tuesday with readings 
mainly in the upper 40s. Lows will be back toward or even below 
November norms with 30s Monday night and 20s to lower 30s on Tuesday 
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure at all levels will provide fair dry weather Wednesday 
with temperatures near to a little above normal. Sfc high pressure 
departs out to sea by Thursday but will maintain dry weather over 
the region. Low level flow will then turn southerly for the 
remainder of the work week which will bring another period of day to 
day warming and daytime highs again rising well above average.

Late this week there will be increasing chances for rain as cut off 
system over the Atlantic off the southeast coast begins to lift 
north as southerly flow increases between high off the east coast 
and approaching low pressure and cold front over the Great Lakes. 
This could even take on some tropical characteristics before it 
moves northward, but the jury is still out on that per the latest 
outlook from NHC. If this system does lift farther north, it would 
bring best chance of rain to our region late Friday into Friday 
night. Given lack of consistency in models, leaned toward continuity 
with nothing more than chance pops.  

Then, at least at the moment, there is decent agreement in primary 
low crossing Great Lakes to end the week with associated sfc cold 
front moving in late Friday into Saturday. It would then become cold 
enough for lake effect next weekend, especially east and southeast 
of the lakes. Would also be eventually cold enough to have a mix of 
rain/snow.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low VFR CIGS (isolated MVFR) will persist east of Lake Ontario 
including KART through the rest of today. Across Western NY, some 
partial clearing has already occurred, although another period of 
lower end VFR BKN CIGS is likely this afternoon as another cold 
frontal segment crosses the area. 

Winds have subsided across the area, but will come up a bit again 
late this morning into the afternoon. There will be at least 
scattered showers across the area for much of today associated with 
a slow moving cold front, with the best coverage of rain east of 
Lake Ontario.

Widespread VFR conditions return tonight.  

Outlook...  

Tonight through Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves have come down below headline criteria early this 
morning, thus all Small Craft Advisories have been dropped, although 
low to moderate chop will remain through the day, especially for 
Lake Erie and eastern Lake Ontario.

Otherwise, the next potential for Small Craft Advisory criteria will 
occur Monday through Monday night across east and southeast portions 
of Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JM
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JM
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...Hitchcock/JM
MARINE...JLA/JM