696 
FXUS61 KCLE 061409
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
909 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sweep southeastward across the area tonight. 
High pressure will build into the region behind the frontal 
passage Monday into mid-week. Low pressure will move into the 
region to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Only minor changes with this update. PoPs slightly increased for
parts of east-central Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania this
afternoon/evening as latest model guidance (especially latest
HRRR/RAP runs) indicate that light rain showers could hold on a
bit longer into the early afternoon.

Previous discussion...
A pleasant and quiet near term forecast period behind the cold 
frontal passage. The front continues its eastward progression 
across the forecast area through early this morning. Skies will 
gradually clear throughout the morning and afternoon hours today
from west to east. Above average temperatures will remain in
place to end the weekend. Highs today will be in the upper 60s,
about 10-15 degrees above normal. A secondary cold front will 
cross the region southeastward this evening. CAA from this front
will drop highs on Monday into the upper 50s, much closer to 
seasonal highs for early November. Surface high pressure and 
drier air will build in behind the secondary cold front for the 
beginning of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Very few changes overall to the forecast through midweek. High 
pressure over Ontario moves ESE to the New England coast, with 
surface winds transitioning from northerly to southerly and back to 
return flow. Cool conditions Tuesday go through a warm up Wednesday 
as a result. Dry weather through the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Digging upper low over the plains region tracks into the Great Lakes 
for the end of the week with a strong cold front slated for Friday 
passage. This will be a more significant change to the airmass for 
the weekend. Will need to watch for possible interactions with some 
tropical moisture, but as of right now, that looks to be with the 
frontal passage east of the CWA. Expecting 40s for the beginning of 
the weekend. Southerly winds will persist through the end of the 
week, ahead of a strong cold front Friday. Lake conditions will 
deteriorate into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with 
clearing conditions occurring from west to east throughout the
day today. Sustained southwesterly winds of 10-12 knots expected
this afternoon at all terminals, with the potential for gusts 
of 18-20 knots through the afternoon in peak heating. Winds 
quickly subside by the evening, becoming generally westerly at
10 knots or less. 

Outlook...VFR expected through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds out of the west southwest have subsided to the 10-15kt range 
this early Sunday morning. They will likely become a little more 
southwesterly Sunday before turning back to the west and eventually 
the northwest into Monday. High pressure influences passing from 
northwestern Ontario through Quebec and then to the New England 
coast will continue to turn the winds eventually to the northeast 
Tuesday. Wave heights in the onshore flow regime will likely be in 
the 2-3ft range late Monday through Tuesday. By Wednesday, with the 
surface high off the New England coast, the winds get back to a 
southerly component, and southeast winds turn southwest through the 
end of the week. A strong cold front will likely push through the 
lake later on Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson/Saunders
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...26