285 
FXUS62 KRAH 061406
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
905 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the region through Monday. A cold 
front will drop into the area from the northwest Monday night, and 
settle to our south early Tuesday, as strong low pressure develops 
off the Southeast coast. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 905 AM Sunday...

Only very minor tweaks are needed to the forecast this morning. 
Patchy showers continue to stream northward across the Foothills and 
western Piedmont, within a stream of elevated PW around 1.5" and 
well ahead of the stalled front extending through central 
OH/KY/TN/MS. The 12z GSO sounding shows this well, with high RH 
above 350 mb (corresponding to the high cloud deck streaking across 
the region) and below 700 mb, responsible for the multi-layered 
lower clouds over the western CWA. This lower level moisture will 
persist over our W half today with a continued SE to S flow drawing 
in plentiful Atlantic moisture, although upstream, the CHS sounding 
is actually a bit drier than GSO below 700 mb, so we should still 
see some brighter spots and brief holes in the cloud cover. In the 
E, while the high clouds will shift E over the entire area, the low 
levels still appear likely to remain too dry for any appreciable 
precip from the Triangle E, so will restrict pops today to W of Hwy 
1. Still appears that CAPE will be minimal, just a couple hundred 
J/kg at most with marginal amounts of moisture through the mixed 
phase region aloft, so have restricted any lightning to isolated 
this afternoon within the better shower coverage. Thicker and more 
abundant cloudiness NW will favor a lower diurnal range there, 
despite the warm start to the day areawide, while E sections with 
more insolation will be quite warm. Will keep highs from the mid 70s 
NW to mid 80s SE. See record temp info below. -GIH

Earlier discussion from 249 AM: Broad southwesterly flow aloft 
remains in place across the region this morning, as an upper ridge 
maintains its position off the coast while a deep upper low makes 
its way into Canada. At the surface, a cold front continues its 
eastward trek through the TN Valley, albeit at a slowing pace as the 
parent low races northward into Canada. Meanwhile, central NC 
remains in the pre-frontal warm advection regime with southeasterly 
winds (with occasional gusts) persisting this morning. Temperatures 
have moved little since Saturday evening with many locations still 
in the mid to upper 60s as of 08Z. Showers moved across the western 
Piedmont earlier this morning and dissipated, but additional 
development is occurring just downwind of the mountains. 

Warm advection will continue through the day today and given the 
mild start to the day, temperatures this afternoon should once again 
have no problem rising into the lower 80s. Pre-frontal moisture 
transport will be maximized across the western Piedmont this 
afternoon with an axis of 200-500 J/KG of MLCAPE developing before 
18Z. As such I've increased PoPs west of the Triangle and included a 
mention of thunderstorms this afternoon. Not anticipating a severe 
threat with anything that develops but some thunder is possible 
nonetheless. Meanwhile to the east the BL should remain too stable 
to support showers or thunderstorms and I kept the forecast dry. 

Any showers that develop today should dissipate by this evening, 
with cloud cover lingering into early Monday morning. As the front 
is not expected to move through until late Monday, overnight 
temperatures will remain mild once again with low/mid 60s forecast 
early Monday morning. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 
As of 249 AM Sunday... 

The cold front will finally make a push across the mountains on 
Monday and move through NC Monday night. The front will be displaced 
from any appreciable mid/upper level forcing and in all likelihood 
it will be a dry frontal passage, but some guidance is hinting at 
some enhanced pre-frontal moisture convergence Monday afternoon 
across the northern Coastal Plain and I've included some low PoPs 
(15-20 percent) in those areas. Monday will be the final warm day of 
this recent stretch with highs once again climbing into the low to 
mid 80s. However temperatures will drop rapidly behind the front, 
all the way into the upper 40s to mid 50s by daybreak Tuesday. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 133 AM Sunday... 

An upper ridge will remain over our area Tue-Thur with sfc high 
pressure centered to our north extending south into the Carolinas. 
Meanwhile, sfc low pressure just northeast of the Bahamas on Tue 
will drift wwd through Thur, becoming positioned somewhere invof the 
S.FL coast by Thur morning.  While there's a lot of model 
differences and uncertainty with the aforementioned sfc low, it 
appears that our weather during the Tue-Thur afternoon time frame 
will be dry with seasonable temps, albeit somewhat breezy, if not 
windy at times due to a tight pres grad between the high center to 
our north and the low to our south. Temps will be at or just above 
normal during that time. 

For the Thur night through Sat time frame, confidence is low given 
the model differences with the aforementioned low to our south. 
Nevertheless, it appears that whatever the track of the said low 
turns out to be, the sfc low, or more importantly it's moisture, 
will eventually get drawn north into our area as early as Thur 
evening or night as a longwave trough to our west approaches. Thus 
look for decent rain chances beginning Thursday evening and 
lingering through early Saturday morning until the upper trough axis 
sweeps across.  After the trough axis and sfc low exit to our 
northeast, look for decreasing cloudiness, breezy northerly sfc 
winds, and CAA beginning mid-day Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 611 AM Sunday... 

INT/GSO: The majority of today's sub-VFR weather will be across the 
western Piedmont, where a combination of scattered showers and IFR 
cigs remain in place this morning. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms (still withholding mention of thunder from TAFs since 
instability will be greater to the south) will be included in the 
TAFs for several hours this morning through the afternoon hours, 
with intermittent periods of MVFR cigs/vsbys within any of the 
stronger showers that move through the area. Once precip tapers off 
this evening, expect a return of IFR cigs/vsbys for the overnight 
hours. 

RDU/RWI/FAY: Mainly VFR weather today although a few pockets of IFR 
vsbys are drifting through the Coastal Plain (specifically RWI). Any 
morning fog should be gone by 14Z with dry/VFR conditions 
anticipated through the afternoon/evening hours. Most guidance 
pointing to widespread IFR or lower fog developing late tonight and 
I started trending the forecast in that direction. 

Looking beyond 12z Mon, VFR conditions are likely to dominate after 
Monday morning's fog mixes out, although a mostly dry cold front 
passage Mon will bring a shift of winds from the NE, and perhaps 
some gusts late in the day as colder air pours into the area from 
the N. As this NE flow pulls Atlantic moisture into the area, 
periods of MVFR cigs are possible Wed and Thu, mainly in the SE. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Max and High Minimum temperatures through Mon, November 7:
                       
              GSO                  RDU                  FAY

11/6: 80 (1975)/65 (1938)  83 (2003)/65 (2015)  85 (1961)/71 (2003)
11/7: 78 (1938)/61 (1938)  80 (2008)/61 (2003)  81 (1975)/65 (2003)

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$ 
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield 
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/Leins 
SHORT TERM...Leins 
LONG TERM...np 
AVIATION...Leins/Hartfield 
CLIMATE...MWS