471 
FXUS66 KEKA 061348
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
548 AM PST Sun Nov 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A colder storm system will bring more rain, mountain snow
and gusty southerly winds to the area Today. Rain and snow showers
are expected to continue Monday and Tuesday. Drier weather is 
expected by mid to late week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...IR satellite imagery show a long wave upper level
trough dropping south toward the Pacific Northwest. After a brief
period of dry weather, a wetter pattern will continue today with 
another storm system approaching the region this morning. This 
will bring rain showers and mountain snow to Northern California.
Southerly winds will increase quickly ahead of the front with 
gusts from 30 mph to locally as high as 40 mph over the exposed 
ridges over the ridges and coastal plain. 


Convective allowing models indicate a strong line of showers moving
across the area early this afternoon in Del Norte county and 
spreading south through the late afternoon and evening. With 500
mb temperatures of -25C and boundary layer Cape around 100-300
J/kg, isolated thunderstorms and brief heavy downpours will be
possible with it. The chance of thunderstorm also increase as the
500mb temperatures drop to -33C and the instability increase. 
Small hail looks fairly likely along the coast from late tonight 
through Monday evening. 

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for Del Norte County for
elevation above 3,000 feet, and for northern Humboldt and Trinity
counties to above 3,500 feet. Snow levels will be 3,500 to 4,000 
feet with much of this initial round of rain. Later in the 
evening and overnight snow levels will fall to around 2,500 to 
3,500 feet.

Late Sunday night there may be a brief break in the precip before
the upper level trough starts to move onshore bringing showers to
the area. Snow levels will generally be around 3,000 feet and
amounts may be more variable. These showers are expected to be
most numerous in Humboldt and Del Norte counties.These showers  
are expected to be most numerous in Humboldt and Del Norte 
counties. A winter weather advisory may be needed for the snow on 
Monday and Monday night...and a another winter storm warning may
be needed once again for Scott Mountain Summit late Monday night 
and Tuesday monrning.These showers will be fairly convective.

The showers activity is expected to quickly dissipate on Wednesday 
as a shortwave ridging start to build over the West Coast, and the 
upper level trough progresses eastward. This will yield in a drying 
and clearing trend through Thursday. A cooler/drier airmass with 
clear skies will result in a threat for frost and freezing 
temperatures for the coastal Del Norte, Humboldt and Mendocino 
counties, as well as valleys of SW Humboldt and SW Mendocino 
counties on Thursday morning. These areas have not seen a widespread 
killing freeze yet this Fall. Thus, freeze warnings and frost 
advisories will still be issued for all this areas until experience 
a season ending killing freezing.

Friday or Saturday the next system is expected to move into the 
area, although there is still a lot of uncertainty on the potential 
for precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...Light showers will develop this morning in advance of 
the next strong front. A convective line of showers with gusty 
winds, brief heavy rain and possibly thunder will then approach the 
coast early this afternoon. Southerly winds will be quite gusty 
ahead of and along the front, with high-res guidance mixing down 
brief gusts up to 40kts along the potential squall line. Expect 
conditions to quickly deterioate to IFR today with the front, 
followed by lowering ceilings throughout the day from MVFR to IFR as 
rain continues. 


&&

.MARINE...Another round of southerly fresh breezes return today. 
Model soundings are indicating that this front is much more 
unstable/convective than our usual fronts, so expect gusty 
southerlies ahead of the front this morning along with blustery 
westerlies in its wake this afternoon and evening. Some high 
resolution model guidance is indicating sparse isolated gusts in the 
30 to 40 kts range, particularly in the northern waters right as the 
front moves moves onshore from late this morning to early in the 
afternoon. Additionally, a solid mid period swell will start to 
build in tonight and Monday peaking 16 to 18 feet at 15 seconds 
Monday evening. Current guidance remains right on the threshold of 
haz seas, but offshore buoys have confirmed modeled heights so 
current thinking is that this will remain just shy of the 18 ft 
seas criteria. This swell will then slowly decay into mid next week.



&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM PST 
     Monday for CAZ102-105-107-108.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ450-470-
     475.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST 
     Tuesday for PZZ455.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

821 
FXUS66 KEKA 061417 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
548 AM PST Sun Nov 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A colder storm system will bring more rain, mountain snow
and gusty southerly winds to the area Today. Rain and snow showers
are expected to continue Monday and Tuesday. Drier weather is 
expected by mid to late week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...IR satellite imagery show a long wave upper level
trough dropping south toward the Pacific Northwest. After a brief
period of dry weather, a wetter pattern will continue today with 
another storm system approaching the region this morning. This 
will bring rain showers and mountain snow to Northern California.
Southerly winds will increase quickly ahead of the front with 
gusts from 30 mph to locally as high as 40 mph over the exposed 
ridges over the ridges and coastal plain. 


Convective allowing models indicate a strong line of showers moving
across the area early this afternoon in Del Norte county and 
spreading south through the late afternoon and evening. With 500
mb temperatures of -25C and boundary layer Cape around 100-300
J/kg, isolated thunderstorms and brief heavy downpours will be 
possible with it. 

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for Del Norte County for
elevation above 3,000 feet, and for northern Humboldt and Trinity
counties to above 3,500 feet. Snow levels will be 3,500 to 4,000 
feet with much of this initial round of rain. Later in the 
evening and overnight snow levels will fall to around 2,500 to 3,500 
feet. 

Late Sunday night there may be a brief break in the precip before
the upper level trough starts to move onshore bringing showers to 
the area. The chance of thunderstorm will increase as the 500mb 
temperatures drop to -33C and the instability increase. Small hail 
looks fairly likely along the coast from late tonight through Monday 
evening. Snow levels will generally be around 3,000 feet and amounts 
may be more variable. These showers are expected to be most numerous 
in Humboldt and Del Norte counties.These showers are expected to be 
most numerous in Humboldt and Del Norte counties. A winter weather 
advisory may be needed for the snow on Monday and Monday night...and 
a another winter storm warning may be needed once again for Scott 
Mountain Summit late Monday night and Tuesday monrning.These showers 
will be fairly convective.

The showers activity is expected to quickly dissipate on Wednesday 
as a shortwave ridging start to build over the West Coast, and the 
upper level trough progresses eastward. This will yield in a drying 
and clearing trend through Thursday. A cooler/drier airmass with 
clear skies will result in a threat for frost and freezing 
temperatures for the coastal Del Norte, Humboldt and Mendocino 
counties, as well as valleys of SW Humboldt and SW Mendocino 
counties on Thursday morning. These areas have not seen a widespread 
killing freeze yet this Fall. Thus, freeze warnings and frost 
advisories will still be issued for all this areas until experience 
a season ending killing freezing.

Friday or Saturday the next system is expected to move into the 
area, although there is still a lot of uncertainty on the potential 
for precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...Light showers will develop this morning in advance of 
the next strong front. A convective line of showers with gusty 
winds, brief heavy rain and possibly thunder will then approach the 
coast early this afternoon. Southerly winds will be quite gusty 
ahead of and along the front, with high-res guidance mixing down 
brief gusts up to 40kts along the potential squall line. Expect 
conditions to quickly deterioate to IFR today with the front, 
followed by lowering ceilings throughout the day from MVFR to IFR as 
rain continues. 


&&

.MARINE...Another round of southerly fresh breezes return today. 
Model soundings are indicating that this front is much more 
unstable/convective than our usual fronts, so expect gusty 
southerlies ahead of the front this morning along with blustery 
westerlies in its wake this afternoon and evening. Some high 
resolution model guidance is indicating sparse isolated gusts in the 
30 to 40 kts range, particularly in the northern waters right as the 
front moves moves onshore from late this morning to early in the 
afternoon. Additionally, a solid mid period swell will start to 
build in tonight and Monday peaking 16 to 18 feet at 15 seconds 
Monday evening. Current guidance remains right on the threshold of 
haz seas, but offshore buoys have confirmed modeled heights so 
current thinking is that this will remain just shy of the 18 ft 
seas criteria. This swell will then slowly decay into mid next week.



&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM PST 
     Monday for CAZ102-105-107-108.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ450-470-
     475.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST 
     Tuesday for PZZ455.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png