046 
FXUS64 KSHV 061133
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
533 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sun Nov 6 2022

Areas of fog possible this morning, mainly south of I-20, due to
increased moisture from previous rainfall and a slightly unstable
low-level airmass. Low clouds to increase in coverage later this 
morning ahead of a warm front that will drive north into the 
region this evening. Widely scattered showers will accompany the 
front and persist through tonight into Monday with a few isolated 
thunderstorms possible on Monday afternoon mainly across the I-30 
corridor. High temperatures today to climb into the 70s. Expect 
much warmer temperatures tonight behind the warm front with lows 
ranging from the mid 50s across southeast Oklahoma to the mid 60s 
across deep east Texas and north Louisiana. Otherwise, high 
temperatures on Monday to range from the mid 70s across southeast 
Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas to the mid 80s across deep east 
Texas and north Louisiana. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sun Nov 6 2022

For the first half of the upcoming work week, broad upper-level 
ridging will extend across the Southern Plains into the Lower 
Mississippi Valley. This will result in dry weather over our region, 
with morning lows in the low to mid 60s, and afternoon highs in the 
low to mid 80s.  

By Wednesday evening, the upper ridge will start to shift eastward, 
and become more centered over the SE CONUS. At the same time, long 
range models are suggesting that a developing tropical system will 
move westward underneath the ridge and likely towards the state of 
Florida. With a sfc high expected to be in place across the Mid-
Atlantic states and the tropical system near Florida, northeasterly 
flow will set-up across the Appalachians, the adjacent SE CONUS, and 
into the Lower Mississippi Valley and eastern extent of the Southern 
Plains. This would result in some cooler and drier air backdooring 
into our region by Thursday. However, temperatures will remain about 
5 to 10 degrees above normal, with morning lows in the mid to upper 
50s, and highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

Thursday evening into Friday, a closed upper trough will eject out 
of the Rockies into the Plains, sending a cold front into the 
region. With the drier push of air backdooring into the region prior 
to this front, moisture will be limited ahead of this system. But, 
can't rule out some isolated showers developing along the front, 
especially north of Interstate 30. Behind the front, expect dry 
weather and much cooler temperatures to move into the region by next 
weekend. Both highs and lows will run some 10-15 degrees below 
normal on Saturday, with morning lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s, 
along with afternoon highs struggling to reach 60 degrees. There is 
some indication that morning freezing temps could return to portions 
of the region by next Sunday. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

Areas of fog possible across portions of north Louisiana and deep
east Texas through daybreak. Increased moisture to lead to MVFR 
ceilings across most sites along and south of I-20 from 07/12Z 
through 07/18Z before improving to VFR thereafter. Southerly 
winds to increase to 5 to 10 knots areawide. Warm front to move 
north allowing for MVFR ceilings and VCSH conditions across most 
terminal sites from 07/03Z through the end of the forecast period. 
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  65  82  64 /  10  40  30   0 
MLU  79  65  83  63 /  20  30  20   0 
DEQ  76  58  77  60 /   0  30  40   0 
TXK  77  64  77  63 /   0  40  40   0 
ELD  76  61  77  60 /   0  40  40   0 
TYR  79  67  81  64 /   0  30  40   0 
GGG  78  64  80  63 /   0  30  30   0 
LFK  79  66  83  63 /  10  20  10   0 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...05