367 
FXUS65 KTWC 060959
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
259 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will climb to above average to start the
week. Gusty winds Tuesday and Wednesday as another system pushes
through the area mainly north of us. Cooler the second half of the
week before temperatures rebound again next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Dry to start the week with a broad zonal flow across
the region. Afternoon highs back to a few degrees above climo into
Tuesday.

A weather system from the Gulf of Alaska will dig down the west
coast over the next 72 hours, with ensembles taking it inland
through the central Great Basin Wednesday. NAEFS show significant
integrated water vapor transport west and northwest of our area,
with any significant moisture / dynamics couplet north of our
area. Main story for our area will be lower end windy conditions
developing later Tuesday and Wednesday along with the cold air
advection behind the trough for the second half of the week. No
headlines anticipated.

Ensemble means are advertising a sharper ridge next weekend as a 
stronger split flow develops further upstream in the eastern 
Pacific. 500mb 5 day height anomalies suggest an open wave 
resolution with positive height anomalies over much of the west 
for mid month. That would keep the storm track north of our area 
with any significant storm action well downstream.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 07/12Z.
Light diurnal winds generally under 10 kts with FEW-SCT AOA 20k ft 
AGL. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Min RH values will fall into the upper teens in 
the afternoons as temperatures climb back above average today and  
Monday, however overnight recoveries will remain good. Typical 
diurnal wind trends with 20-foot winds generally less than 15 mph,
then gusty south and southwest winds Tuesday and Wednesday ahead
of another weather system. Best precip chances will be north of
the area. Cooler the second half of the week before temperatures
climb again next weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Meyer/Tetrault

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