223 
FXUS62 KKEY 060914
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
414 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2022

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2022

A persistent easterly wind flow noted by the KBYX VAD wind 
profile pulled moisture from the Atlantic waters into the Keys 
resulting in showers over the island chain. GOES-16 nighttime 
microphysics notes pockets of moisture and clouds in the local 
waters and the Bahamas; the light showers will continue to 
infiltrate the area over the next several hours. Not much has 
changed in the near term, with moderate northeasterly winds 
advecting patches of higher moisture content into the Keys 
periodically, thus leading to short-lived isolated showers. The 
moisture is confined between the 1000 MB to 800 MB layer, while a 
plethora of dry air resides in the mid to upper levels. Therefore 
PoPs were held at (30%) today. 

Late tonight guidance has PWAT plummeting due to drier air 
working into the region from the northeast. The GFS and ECMWF have
PWAT falling well below the 25th percentile and maintains below 
moisture content throughout the Keys until early Tuesday morning, 
with PoPs at (20%). 

Later today the surface trough will move into the 
southwestern Atlantic and merge with a broad upper-level low 
somewhere near the Bahamas. Deterministic and probabilistic 
guidance continues to show heights lowering over the Caribbean and
Bahamas due to a surface low that will develop and drift to the 
east or northeast. The National Hurricane Center has a high (80%) 
chance of the low pressure area developing into a subtropical or 
Tropical cyclone early next week. A ridge of high pressure north 
of the potential system will push the subtropical or tropical 
cyclone to the west, possibly near the east coast of Florida.

I want to emphasize there is still high uncertainty in the track 
and intensity of the low pressure system or tropical cyclone. 
What we do know is rain chances will increase from (30-40%) 
Tuesday through the end of the week. At this time, the best rain 
chances will be on Wednesday and Thursday. The potential tropical 
or subtropical cyclone could cause elevated winds and tides in the
Keys. For the latest information on this feature, follow the 
National Hurricane and NWS Key West for local information.

Late next week, a frontal boundary will sweep through the 
southern United States and the Peninsula of Florida, with the cold
front lowering temperatures and dew points a couple of degrees.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 410 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2022

Northeast to east breezes will freshen today and prevail through 
early next week due to a low pressure system that will develop 
north of Hispaniola. Breezes will become fresh to strong and cause
hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters. The low 
pressure area will move west to northwestward across the central 
and northwestern Bahamas. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 410 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2022

VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF period. A 
few isolated showers will continue pass across both island terminals 
through daybreak, so have included VCSH through around sunrise. 
Thereafter, shower development is still possible, but confidence is 
lower in timing and location, so have decided to remove VCSH past 
12z. Surface winds will be northeast to east at 7 to 11 knots. 
Heading into the evening, winds will begin to increase to 10 to 15 
knots, with gusts of 15 to 20 knots.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...TW
Aviation/Nowcasts....NB
Data Acquisition.....AP

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