837 
FXUS63 KFSD 060910
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
310 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Critical fire danger expected across the region today.
2) Breezy to windy conditions continue through Wednesday.
3) Unseasonably warm TUE/WED with rain and t-storms possible. 
4) Sharp cold front results in a notable cool down by end of week.

Light showers continue along and north of I-90, with the better 
moisture located near the Hwy-14 corridor. Nonetheless, with rather 
dry air near the sfc, have only seen a few hundredths in 
accumulations occur over the past several hours. Winds during this 
time have begun shifting to the southwest, becoming a bit breezy at 
times mainly along and south of Hwy-20. Will continue to see 
direction gradually turn W/WNW as we approach daybreak, with gusts 
forecast to ramp up quickly this morning. In fact, latest 
soundings from across the region show around 35 to 55 kts at the 
top of the mixed layer, suggesting that gusts between 30 to 45 mph
will be likely across a vast majority of our area. Similar to 
previous shifts, have nudged values up a touch to mirror some of 
the more mixy solutions. Given that there isn't much in the way of
significant changes, believe the current Wind Advisory remains in
good shape! Aside from windy conditions, the other main concern 
today remains centered on critical fire weather conditions - which
is elaborated on further in the Fire Weather Section below. In 
regard to temperatures, look for afternoon highs to remain 
seasonal, as broad CAA keeps values in the low to mid 50s.

Otherwise, expect breezy conditions to quickly diminish after 
sunset, with direction forecast to turn northwesterly then light 
and variable throughout the overnight period. Lows during this 
time will be fairly brisk as temperatures fall into the 20s.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

Weak ridging begins to develop overhead Monday as an upper level 
trough digs across the western CONUS. Winds will become 
south/southeasterly as sfc high pressure builds across the region,
and while not at breezy as Sunday, could still see gusts range 
between 20 to 35 mph through the afternoon. Thus, may see another
day of elevated to critical fire weather danger, especially along
and west of the James River where the strongest winds and lowest 
RH's overlap. Despite the change in wind direction, expect broad 
CAA to keep highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Unseasonably warm temperatures return Tuesday and Wednesday as upper 
level ridging amplifies over the central CONUS. Think it's worth 
noting, however, that model guidance suggest quite a bit of cloud
cover across our area, which may put a damper on just how warm we
get. Currently have highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s Tuesday, with
the warmest values generally along the MO River Valley. Somewhat 
similar story Wednesday in terms of highs, though the warmest 
values this time look to largely be along and southeast of a line 
from Tyndall-Sioux Falls-Marshall. As alluded to in the previous 
discussion, southerly to southwesterly winds during this time look
to become quite breezy, with gusts between 25 to 35 mph possible 
at times. Thus, with the aid of WAA and Gulf moisture, can't rule 
out the possibility of seeing scattered showers and a few 
thunderstorms develop Tuesday afternoon and evening. Rain chances 
increase Wednesday into Thursday as a sfc cold front associated 
with the aforementioned trough takes aim at the region. 

However, the bigger story with this wave remains centered on the 
notable cool down that will occur during the latter half of the 
week. Long term solutions continue to favor a slower progression of 
the cold front, which will in turn have an effect on both p-type and 
temperatures. For now, expect rain Wednesday to gradually switch to 
a rain/snow mix throughout the day Thursday as thermal profiles 
cool, with a switch to all snow more likely near sunset. In regard 
to highs, have temperatures ranging from the low 40s to mid 50s - 
which is about 20 to 30 degrees warmer than the last forecast 
package. Again, the timing of this front will ultimately decide how 
these values shake out - so will continue to monitor trends and 
adjust values as needed in the coming shifts. Otherwise, look for
dry conditions to return to the region by mid-morning Friday. As 
noted above, temperatures heading into the weekend will be much 
cooler, as highs in the upper 20s to low 30s, and lows in the 
single digits to teens become common!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

Scattered showers will move through the area and should exit by 
10z. The main concern with these showers is the potential to mix 
down some gusts around 30 mph. Patchy LLWS will remain possible 
through the night with strong westerly flow aloft. Otherwise west 
to northwest winds will quickly increase in the morning with gusts
of 40 to 50 mph likely late morning into the afternoon. Gusts of 
30 to 40 mph will be more common in northwest IA and northeast NE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

As noted above, critical fire weather danger is expected across the 
region today. In regard to winds, look for direction to remain out 
of the west, with gusts between 35 to 45 mph possible through the 
afternoon. With a few soundings showing 55 to 60 kts at the top of 
the mixed layer, may even see a few locations approach 50 mph this 
afternoon. Dry air will infiltrate the region during this time, 
resulting in dewpoints in the teens and minimum RH values in the low 
to mid 20s. 

Despite temperatures remaining seasonal throughout the day, believe 
the factors mentioned above coupled with on-going drought conditions 
paints a pretty convincing picture that Red Flag conditions remain 
likely. While the strongest winds look to occur along and north of I-
90, still think we will see strong enough gusts in areas south to 
warrant an expansion of the Red Flag Warning to now cover our entire 
area. Plus, even if winds remain borderline, we have over performed 
quite a bit this summer and fall - so would rather err on the side 
of caution given the D3 to D4 drought conditions in our far south-
southeastern counties. Thus, we strongly encourage you to remain 
vigilant with any activities that may cause a spark today, as 
wildfires can spread quickly under these conditions!

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for 
     SDZ038>040-050-052>071.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening 
     for SDZ038>040.

MN...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for 
     MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening 
     for MNZ071-072.

IA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for 
     IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for 
     NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SST
LONG TERM...SST
AVIATION...08
FIRE WEATHER...SST