048 
FXUS64 KAMA 060528
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1228 AM CDT Sun Nov 6 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

After a cold start to the day, temperature are expected to rise
into the 60s across the Panhandles. A subtle cold front will push
across the area overnight into early tomorrow morning. Highs will
likely be a couple of degrees cooler behind the front.

The latest GOES-16 Day Cloud Phase RGB depicts a shallow area of 
snow cover from northern Hutchinson county up through Perryton is 
continuing to linger this afternoon. This is leading to 
temperatures slowly rising in this area. Most areas are in the mid
50s, whereas the area that had lingering snow cover is in the mid
40s. With that being said, have lowered high temperatures in this
area and they will likely not get to the 60 degree mark today. 
For other areas, breezy southerly winds are continuing to usher in
a warmer airmass over the Southern Plains, and temperatures will 
rise into the 60s with a few areas potentially hitting 70 by peak 
heating today.

Zonal flow aloft is leading to a leeside low developing across 
Colorado today. Thankfully, the strongest winds associated with
this feature are remaining to our west and north today. As the
leeside low moves southeast overnight, it will propel a weak cold 
front across the Panhandles tonight into tomorrow morning. The 
front will likely be through the entire area by late morning. 
Northerly winds will bring in some CAA across the region. The CAA
will be relatively weak, so temperatures are only expected to be 
a couple of degrees cooler tomorrow. Some breezy north winds are 
possible behind the front near mid-day before becoming upslope by
late afternoon into the overnight. Temperatures on Sunday night 
will be cool once again, with lows dropping to near freezing in 
the northern Panhandles. With temperatures dropping into the 30s
along with easterly upslope flow, some models are indicating that
fog may develop across portions of the Panhandles on Monday 
morning.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

Low level moisture will return Monday morning as a return flow 
commences around high pressure to our northeast.  This low level 
moisture will combine with an upper level short wave trough moving 
this way in the southwest flow aloft on Monday night to help produce 
some showers and thunderstorms.  At this point, the best chance of 
any precipitation looks to be across the southeast Texas Panhandle 
closest to the better lift and moisture.  A few intermittent showers 
may linger after sunrise on Tuesday, but very little rainfall is 
expected.

All eyes then turn to the large upper level trough moving southeast 
into the Great Basin by early Wednesday morning.  A surface low will 
intensify on the lee-side of the Rockies in eastern Colorado by 
early Wednesday.  This lee-side low will continue to strengthen 
during the day Wednesday as the center of the upper level low moves 
toward southwest Wyoming.  This will help to tighten the surface 
gradient across the Panhandles with the strongest winds expected 
across the northwest where winds may gust to around 55 mph.  Some 
moisture will return in the eastern Panhandles on Wednesday, but at 
this time it looks like the bulk of any precipitation will stay east 
of the Panhandles.  The strong downslope winds on Wednesday will 
help temperatures to soar into the 70's.  But as the upper level low 
moves out onto the Plains Thursday and Friday it will help to pull 
much colder air south.  Highs on Thursday are expected be mainly in 
the 50's and in the 40's on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Nov 6 2022

All sites should remain VFR through the period. The high clouds
streaming across the area should exit the area by morning. Winds
are westerly to northwesterly and under 12kts currently. Winds
should turn more northerly to northeasterly through the day. There
may be some breezy winds at all sites from about 15Z to 21Z where
sustained winds will be 15-20kts with a few gusts.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                65  38  69  54 /   0   0   0  10 
Beaver OK                  65  36  68  51 /   0   0   0  20 
Boise City OK              62  33  65  48 /   0   0   0  10 
Borger TX                  67  39  72  57 /   0   0   0  10 
Boys Ranch TX              67  36  70  54 /   0   0   0  10 
Canyon TX                  67  38  70  54 /   0   0   0  10 
Clarendon TX               67  41  68  57 /   0   0   0  20 
Dalhart TX                 64  33  66  49 /   0   0   0  10 
Guymon OK                  65  34  68  52 /   0   0   0  10 
Hereford TX                69  38  71  56 /   0   0   0  10 
Lipscomb TX                66  36  69  53 /   0   0   0  20 
Pampa TX                   65  39  69  55 /   0   0   0  20 
Shamrock TX                68  40  69  56 /   0   0   0  30 
Wellington TX              70  41  70  57 /   0   0   0  30 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...16