596 
FXUS63 KFGF 060429
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1129 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

Only a trace of rain fell with the echoes as they moved over the
NWS Grand Forks office just a bit ago. The Fargo ASOS also
recorded a trace of rain, so not very much. The wind switch to the
southwest is pushing toward the Devils Lake to Jamestown corridor,
with the switch to the west (and the stronger winds) somewhere
from Bismarck to Minot. There are some upstream snow showers, so
will have to keep an eye on those for northern portions of this FA
on Sunday.

UPDATE Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

Still seeing echoes on radar moving into the Red River Valley,
however, reports of anything reaching the ground are getting hard
to come by. Did see a few webcams with a few drops on their
lenses, but the dry air in the low layers still seems to be
winning. Will maintain the low chances for a rain or snow shower 
tonight, but it would minimal. The increasing west winds are now 
pushing into the western part of North Dakota, but are unlikely to
reach this FA until closer to midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

South winds over eastern ND and the Red River valley gusting to
20-30 kts and look for winds to continue into the evening ahead of
a cold front which will move east into the Devils Lake basin
toward 06z Sunday and then east from there. Colder air lags the 
initial front by 3 hours or so with cold advection into DVL basin
toward 09z Sunday and with this winds will increase with gusts
over 35 kts. Cooler air and gusty west winds will overspread the
area Sunday. Based on soundings best mixing of 50-55 kt winds at
820-850 mb is late morning thru late afternoon. Highest chance for
these high winds are in the DVL basin and escarpment west of Grand
Forks. But low is weakening as it moves east Sunday through
Manitoba into Ontario by late in the day and cold advection not
that strong, so unsure how much mixing will and on the fence on
high wind warning for DVL basin. Confidence close, but feel best
way to message is for a high wind watch to go into effect 15z Sun
to 00z Mon. Will keep wind advisory in place prior to watch start
time and keep wind advisory rest of eastern ND/RRV and parts of
west central MN as was issued earlier.  

For precipitation...a band of light rain showers moving east ahead
of the front will move into DVL basin 21z-22z and spread east into
the RRV and SE ND 23z-02z and then into MN. Amounts look quite
light...NDAWN shows a few hundredths where rain is/was in NW ND. 
Due to temps as precipitation arrives tonight a period of light
rain/snow mix may occur in NW MN.  

Sunday will see wraparound moisture on the southern edge of the
sfc low to our north skirt our north near the Canadian border. A
chance exists for a little light snow or snow shower but the
moisture wrapping around this system is diminishing as it moves
farther east. Minimal impacts expected from any wintry precip.

For fire weather, MPX coord with MIFC and a red flag warning
issued for much of southern and central MN including Grant county
MN as RH values may drop to 25 pct and winds will be gusty over 45
mph along with dry fuels. RH values quickly are higher farther
north as cooler air moves in.  

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

Overview: 
The overall trend is wet with seasonably cool temperatures 
this week. Chances of light precipitation Monday due to a frontal 
passage. Wednesday is our warmest day of the week. Thursday and 
Friday has a chance for a wintry mix due to a transient low. 

Discussion: 
The Northern Hemispheric 300mb and 500mb level shows a 
very progressive pattern with 6-7 waves depending how you count it. 
Monday, A warm front passes through the region Monday evening into 
Tuesday morning allow some moisture to advect into the area giving 
us our first small chance at some liquid precipitation or snow. 
Given how dry the atmosphere is prior to this front and how dry the 
air mass is following it very light amounts are possible. The 
ensembles are giving a probability of 25% for a couple hundredths of 
liquid and 0.1inches of snow for those colder temperatures. The 
probability on Tuesday is a little more generous at 35% as the 
Northern Plains transitions to SW flow. The quick moving ridge 
pattern is a little more centered over the Northern Plains. However 
the 850mb dewpoints has the moisture start to advect into the region 
early evening. Wednesday is going to be the warmest day of the week 
with a high temperature in the 50's possibly low 60's for the 
southern half of the state as the ridge passes over. Strong moisture 
advection will occur over the next 24 hours. The ensembles show a 
40% probability for the Red River Valley of seeing a 0.25 inch of 
rain and 60% for North-Central Minnesota. Thursday and Friday, The 
forecast is a bit uncertain, with lower confidence in track, timing, 
and exact type of precipitation. There remains some signaling from 
the ensembles of varied impacts from the system migrating through. 
There's also multiple members forecasting snowfall with this system 
instead of rain, so we will continue to monitor the event as it gets 
closer temporally. Temperatures to end the week will be lower, in 
the 20s for daytime highs, so it appears winter is making its debut 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

Overall stuck with the same ideas from the 00z set of TAFs. Winds
will turn southwest, then west, and really begin to crank up
toward Sunday morning. These will last throughout the day, before
very slow decreasing Sunday night. Ceilings now look a bit lower
for Sunday, mainly for KDVL/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI. There may also be a
few light rain or light snow showers around on Sunday, but since
the confidence is low for when, where, and whether it may reduce
visibilities, left it out for now.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

Afternoon temps cool with gusty west winds. How fast they do and
how low dew points get will determine RH values. Based on forecast
far southeast fcst area....Grant county.... has best chance for RH
values blo 30 pct. WFO MPX coord with MIFC and included Grant
county in red flag warning for Sunday aftn. RH values really
increase farther north, so the north extent of any near critical
fire wx conditions is uncertain.  

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-054.

     High Wind Watch from 9 AM CST Sunday through Sunday afternoon 
     for NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-054.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for NDZ008-016-027-
     029-030-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-022-027-029>031-040.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM CST Sunday for MNZ040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...Godon
FIRE WEATHER...Riddle