304 
FXUS61 KBUF 060247
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1047 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
After a day of record warmth, a passing cold front will help to 
generate gusty winds and a round of showers tonight into early 
Sunday. While Sunday will be cooler, temperatures will still be 
above normal early November levels. Above normal temperatures will 
then persist through most, if not all, of the coming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A 50-60kt low level jet ahead of an approaching cold front will 
partially mix to the sfc in many areas tonight...and this prompted 
an earlier issuance of wind advisories. The southerly flow will be 
enhanced in downslope areas...where gusts to 50 mph will be 
possible. Wind advisories are in effect until midnight for much of 
western New York...and for the Eastern Lake Ontario region through 
4 AM. 

Along with the gusty winds...the passage of a cold front will 
generate fairly widespread showers and possibly a thunderstorm or 
two. These showers are expected to last around 3 to 5 hours at any 
one point during its west to east passage. Rainfall accumulations 
will range mostly less than a quarter of an inch, though some 
elevated instability and the strong low level jet may support a few 
places to accumulate up to a half inch. Speaking of the elevated 
instability and sharp divergence aloft, kept slight chance for some 
thunder as the front passes across the region. Otherwise, 
temperatures will remain on the mild side again tonight with lows 
ranging in the 50s with a few places in the Finger Lakes region 
seeing some low 60s. 

By Sunday morning, the cold front will be in the midst of crossing 
the region and located across the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes 
region. Along and out ahead of the front, showers will be ongoing. 
While winds will be weakening as the better upper and mid-level jet 
dynamics push north, pulling the low level jet out of the region 
too, the eastward progression of the showers will slow down as it 
moves into the eastern half of the forecast region. Overall this 
will boil down to the Genesee Valley to start to dry out early in 
the afternoon, while showers linger across north-central New York.

Despite the cold frontal passage, there will be little modulation in 
the airmass overhead, meaning temperatures will remain well above 
normal with highs ranging in the 60s, and a few places in the 
Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region reaching 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level longwave ridge will be building into the Central US 
between Sunday Night and Tuesday night.  This pattern will support 
the development of surface high pressure, initially over the 
Northern Plains, that'll will move eastward into the Great Lakes 
region by Tuesday.  Dry weather is expected with this pattern. 
However, there will be cold air advection throughout much of the 
early part of the week with a N-NW flow.  Thus, expect daily drops 
in highs and lows, with trends back to normal November values by 
Tuesday (highs ~50F and lows in the 30s).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure at all levels will provide fair dry weather Wednesday 
with temperatures near to a little above normal. Sfc high pressure 
departs to east Wednesday night then out to sea on Thursday but will 
maintain dry weather over the region. Low level flow will then turn 
southerly for the remainder of the work week which will bring 
another period of day to day warming and daytime highs again rising 
well above average.

Models continue to advertise a cold front approaching the Lower 
Lakes at the tail end of week (Friday). Not much has changed 
regarding the 'finer' details with the usual timing issues and also 
moisture surging north from remnants of a potential tropical system. 
Have lowered NBM POPs for Friday, at least until there is better 
agreement to have more confidence. Further down the road, once the 
front has gone through area, there may be some lake effect to deal 
with east-southeast of the lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR weather will persist through the first half of tonight. Expect 
CIGS to lower to low end VFR late this evening as a cold front 
approaches, then cigs will continue to deteriorate to MVFR/low VFR 
late tonight as the front will sweep across the region bringing a 
few hours of light to moderate showers. Additionally with these 
showers, VSBY's may drop briefly to MVFR as the showers pass through.

Otherwise, the only other through tonight will be the winds. 
Southerly winds gusting over 40 mph will become fairly common 
after nightfall. Strongest winds will be at BUF, ROC and ART. Winds 
will then diminish after midnight from west to east. 

Outlook...  

Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers east of a KJHW/KROC 
line.
Monday through Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds will further increase this evening with greatest 
chances of seeing 20-25 kts on Lake Erie and on eastern Lake Ontario 
from Sodus Bay to Cape Vincent. 

For most part, highest waves into tonight will be well offshore. 
East end of Lake Ontario will see higher waves though toward Cape 
Vincent and winds shifting to sw behind the cold front will result 
in higher waves overnight on Lake Erie. Conditions will improve 
across all the waters late tonight toward daybreak on Sunday.

Next potential for Small Craft Advisory criteria will occur 
Monday afternoon into Monday evening across east and southeast 
portions of Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ003-010>014-
     019-085.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LOZ044-
         045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...EAJ/RSH
SHORT TERM...Zaff
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...EAJ/RSH
MARINE...JLA