919 
FXUS64 KMEG 050446
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1146 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Skies are partly cloudy across much of the Mid-South this evening
with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. A large
area of showers and thunderstorms continues to move across western
Arkansas at this time. This activity will move into eastern 
Arkansas around midnight and spread across the remainder of the 
Mid-South during the overnight hours. This activity is expected to
weaken some as it moves east but a strong to severe thunderstorm 
is not out of the question. In addition, winds will increase some 
during the overnight hours so the Wind Advisory will continue. 
Will update forecast to remove evening wording.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

The biggest threat for the area over the next several days will be
the strong to severe thunderstorm threat overnight into Saturday
morning. All guidance still points to a dynamic system moving
through the area over the next 12 to 18 hours. This system has the
makings of a decent severe weather event just to the west of the
area where a Moderate Risk of Severe weather is in effect for
portions of the ArkLaTex. We should not have that strong of a
threat across the Mid South as a Marginal to Slight Risk is
highlighted for our region. Instability remains the limiting 
factor for severe weather around the Mid South. The biggest 
concern will be damaging winds with thunderstorms...but also 
strong gradient winds outside of convection. A Wind Advisory 
remains in effect for tonight into Saturday morning. We can see 
winds gusts outside of thunderstorms up to 45 MPH...and that could
cause power outages and tree damage so we have to remember to 
highlight that as well. The good news is that Saturday on the 
whole should be dry as storms should exit the area by 8 or 9 AM. 
Cloudy skies, with a few showers, can be expected into Monday as 
the front lifts back to the north. Once the front has lifted out 
of the area, a high pressure system, with a weak ridge, will build
right over the Memphis area. This high pressure system will stay 
present almost through the entire work week causing dry and above 
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Winds are increasing across the CWA with some areas already
gusting to ~30 kts. A robust low-level jet will result in low-
level wind shear at all sites with strong winds continuing much 
of the night ahead of a line of TSRA moving into eastern AR. This 
line of storms will result in a period of MVFR CIGS and IFR 
visibility and perhaps some brief, localized wind gusts exceeding 
45 kts. 

We'll likely see a few hours of post-frontal low clouds across
most of the area with a few morning showers. Otherwise, expect
generally improving conditions from west to east. Low ceilings and
rain showers are expected to persist at TUP into the afternoon.
Winds won't be as strong tomorrow, becoming southwesterly at 10-15
kts, gusting to around 20 kts. We may be dealing with some pockets
of low clouds/fog tomorrow night, but that's generally beyond the
scope of this update.

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for MSZ001-002-007-008-
     010>012-020.

TN...Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...MJ