027 
FXUS61 KBTV 301437
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1037 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures continue today into the upcoming week
with mainly dry conditions prevailing. High pressure will
result in plenty of sunshine today with temperatures warming
into the upper 50s to mid 60s with light south winds. Clouds
increase on Monday afternoon with temperatures back in the 60s,
with just a small chance of a few light rain showers late Monday
night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1034 AM EDT Sunday...No changes were made with the
forecast continuing to verify well. The biggest question will be
how high the boundary layer mixes this afternoon. If it mixes
like yesterday to around 1500ft AGL or so, then high temps are
on track. Mixing any higher will promote warmer than forecast
temperatures with 925-850mb temperatures 13-10C. Otherwise, dry
conditions continue with some increasing clouds expected
overnight. 

Previous Discussion...No changes needed to crnt fcst with temps
ranging from 20F NEK to mid 40s acrs the midslope and higher 
summits. As sunrises temps wl warm quick into the upper 50s to 
mid 60s with south winds 4 to 8 mph. All covered well in crnt 
fcst. 

Previous discussion below: This morning obs show a wide range 
in temps based on elevation, as a sharp llvl thermal inversion 
prevails. This has resulted in cool temps in the deeper valleys 
with SLK at 23F, while many midslope and ridgetops are well into
the 40s. As sfc temps warm and some mixing occurs by mid 
morning, expect a more uniform temp profile to develop. Given 
BTV was 62F for a high temp on Saturday and progged 925mb temps 
warm another 1 to 2 degrees C by 18z today, expect highs upper 
50s to mid 60s most locations. Have 65F here at BTV with upper 
60s possible in a few locations, if slightly better mixing can 
occur. In addition, soundings indicate very dry air aloft, as Mt
Washington dwpt is crntly -9F, and feel as mixing occurs today,
some of this drier air aloft wl transfer to the sfc, creating 
critical low rh values in the 20 to 30% range. However, winds 
remain light and generally under 10 knots, so minimal fire wx 
concerns attm. Tonight, expecting a wide range in temps again, 
with warmest values in wider valleys of the SLV and CPV, along 
with midslope locations. Gradient tightens slightly ahead of our
next system, so anticipating south winds here in the CPV, 
resulting in BTV temp holding in the 40s, while on west side of 
lake would not be surprised in PBG dips into the l/m 30s. 
Coolest values wl be SLK/NEK and deeper valleys of central VT 
with temps in the upper 20s/lower 30s. For Monday, the challenge
wl be impacts of mid/upper lvl clouds spreading from sw to ne 
acrs our cwa. Progged 925mb temps remain in the 10-12C range, 
but guidance indicates increasing 850 to 500mb rh fields by 
midday, resulting in some high clouds. Have kept temps similar 
to today with values in the 60s, given we should be starting out
4 to 6 degrees warmer, especially wider valleys. Given very dry
llvls have not mention any pops for Monday in our cwa.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 424 AM EDT Sunday...The passage of an upper-level shortwave
will bring a chance for rain showers late Monday evening through
Tuesday. However, rain will be slow to start given the dry airmass
to overcome at the onset. Additionally, the lack of convergence
means that showers will be scattered in nature. Initially, showers
will be driven by warm air advection processes combined with
orographic lift. This will be followed by a weak boundary on Tuesday
and then light, terrain driven showers under northwest flow
continuing through Tuesday night. At this point, though, moisture
aloft will be waning and any precipitation will likely be in the
form of drizzle. Temperatures will remain above normal through the
period with overnight lows in the 40s Monday into Tuesday, and high
temperatures in the low to mid 60s on Tuesday. Tuesday night lows
will again be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 424 AM EDT Sunday...Above normal temperatures continue through
mid-week with highs in the low to mid 60s. Dry weather is expected
for Wednesday and Thursday as upper-level ridging crests overhead.
Wednesday night looks to be the chilliest night of the week thanks
to radiational cooling with lows in the 30s. The warm and dry trend
will continue through the end of the work week under increasing
southwest flow, with the next chance for any meaningful
precipitation occurring next weekend with a frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Early morning fog product shows some very
localized fog across the CT River Valley, but not impacting any
of our taf sites. A large dome of high pres conts with VFR
conditions anticipated for the next 24 hours, along with south
winds 4 to 8 knots. Given increasing winds just above the sfc
and very dry soundings, not anticipating any fog/br tonight into
Monday to impact our taf sites. 

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Isolated
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Isolated SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Isolated
SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Taber
SHORT TERM...Hammond
LONG TERM...Hammond
AVIATION...Taber