709 
FXUS63 KDDC 271801
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
101 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022

A deep positively tilted synoptic scale trough will be diving 
into the Central High Plains region by this afternoon, while at 
the base a cold core cutoff low moves into New Mexico. At the 
surface, an inverted trough/weak surface cold front will be shifting
across our local area from the west. Models like the GFS show 
several hundredths QPF – but a perusal of HREF fields support a 
quite dry setup for this morning despite model reflectivity 
output. Namely the 1-hr 0.01” QPF probability thresholds are not 
even at 10% anywhere this morning and the 3 hour probability 
matched mean only indicates the 0.01” to a tenth of an inch range 
along the I-70 corridor in the afternoon. All in all the pops were
tempered a bit from the NBM output. 

The fall-like pattern continues temperature-wise. Cloudy for 
longer - the cool upper 50s may be all the Smoky Hill region can 
see this afternoon while the thinning clouds farther south should 
allow more of a bump in temperatures perhaps a warm as approaching
70 in the Red Hills region. 

A few instances of thunder along the Oklahoma line are not all 
that likely but still suggested not ruled out by the HREF 4 hour 
calibrated thunder, maybe from Liberal to Meade from midnight to 3
am Friday. Plenty of cloud cover is likely to continue lingering
overnight, and lowering stratus is probably more likely than any 
widespread fog issues across west central and southwest Kansas. 
The range of outcomes for low temperatures by Friday morning are 
narrow around 40 degrees plus or minus a degree or two for most of
the area. The Ark River westward across Syracuse may be the 
exception with colder temps into the 30s. 
 

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022

The upper low passes eastward across Texas Friday into Saturday. 
The clearing sky over the dry near surface layer will help yield 
some colder morning lows through the weekend and into early next 
week. Widespread mid 30s in the east to lower 30s west is the 
general pattern from the models. All of the westerly momentum 
gets shunted north over the US/Canadian border though midweek 
before the EC/GFS and Canadian all three generate another deep 
trough along the west coast by Tuesday. At this point there is 
little confidence in how that plays out for western Kansas 
heading into the end of the week - the EC and Canadian are 
oppositely aligned in the direction of tilt, while the GFS cuts 
off a larger Northern Plains low. All of the solutions will at 
least probably result in a shot of colder continental air pulled 
down the front range from western Canada by weeks end end. In the 
meantime, the extended period remains dry on the deterministic 
forecast as highs moderate in to the 70s midweek. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022

An upper level disturbance will move across the southern Rockies
and southern plains through the period. Mid to high level cloud 
AOA050 will persist and gradually erode near the end of the 
period. A few sprinkles or light showers are possible, but 
reduictions in visibility are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  42  63  36 /  20  40  10   0 
GCK  60  40  61  33 /  20  40  10   0 
EHA  63  40  60  35 /  20  50  10   0 
LBL  65  40  60  34 /  20  60  20   0 
HYS  62  40  63  35 /  50  40   0   0 
P28  67  44  64  39 /  30  30  10   0 

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Finch