258 
FXUS64 KFWD 230559
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1259 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

...New Aviation... 

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 534 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022/
Update:
A very warm and breezy late afternoon continues with temperatures
still holding in the mid and upper 80s. The high cloud cover has 
helped to keep temperatures below 90 in most locations.

The strong low level warm air advection pattern will continue 
tonight and Sunday ahead of an approaching low pressure system and
cold front expected Sunday night and Monday.

The current forecast is right on track (see discussion below) so
no major changes are needed at this time. 

79

Previous Discussion:
/Through Sunday/

Warm and breezy conditions today will lead to an elevated threat
for fire starts mainly east of I-35. Given fuels remain fairly moisture-
starved, any spark may quickly ignite the dry grasses and readily 
spread given the ongoing windy conditions. 

Temperatures are on track to peak in the 80s for much of the
region this afternoon, with the exception of areas west of 
US-281, where lower to mid 90s are expected. 

Given the approaching upper trough to our west, the continued
tightening of the pressure gradient in the lower levels will lead
to windy conditions through tomorrow. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph
will remain likely, with gusts approaching 30 mph. Early morning
clouds will give way to partly sunny skies tomorrow as highs 
reach the mid 80s to around 90. Rain chances will be increasing 
Sunday night, but for more on that, see the long term discussion 
below. 

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 236 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022/
/Sunday Night Onward/

An active start to the long term period will be followed by a quiet 
couple of days, before the next system arrives towards the end of
the week.

The upper level trough across the Pacific NW depicted on water 
vapor imagery this afternoon will gradually become more amplified 
across the western U.S. through tomorrow. Simultaneously, a shortwave
over the Baja Peninsula will start to become absorbed within the 
southern appendage of the trough, while the remnants of Hurricane 
Rosslyn are expected to decay with a trajectory into the Hill 
Country/South Texas. As the system progresses eastward, the longwave
trough will split, with the southern embedded shortwave becoming 
a closed upper low centered near the Four Corners Monday.

Height falls will start to overspread the western fringes of North & 
Central Texas overnight Sunday/early Monday, with primarily showers 
gradually increasing in coverage throughout the morning. A peak in 
precipitation is anticipated Monday afternoon/evening as height 
falls progressively increase and coincide with an axis of moisture 
ahead of the cold front. Showers and storms will then shift eastward 
as the front moves through Monday night, with lingering chances 
across the northeast Tuesday morning as moisture wraps around the
system and lift is maximized overhead. 

Overall, the setup is favorable for mostly tame showers and 
thunderstorms, as limited instability will curb both the heavy 
rain and severe threat. However, a few strong to severe storms 
are possible across Central Texas Monday evening/night when modest
instability overlaps with plentiful shear and moisture and brings
a threat mainly for gusty winds. A low potential also exists for 
isolated instances of heavy rain/minor flooding, primarily for 
those along/east of the I-35 corridor. This area will likely see 
the most efficient rain rates Monday evening/overnight and will 
continue to be monitored for a flooding threat. High end rainfall 
amounts in this sector are between 2.5 to 3 inches, with the 
greatest area of uncertainty across eastern North Texas. Most of 
North & Central Texas will see rainfall amounts ranging from 0.5 
to near 1.5 inches. 

The cold front will knock high temperatures down into the 60s and
70s, with a gradual warming trend through Thursday. Another front
and weaker system approach at the end of the work week, bringing 
additional rain chances to the area. 

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Gusty southerly winds at the surface and aloft, and increased
moisture, will help to usher in another round of MVFR cigs for 
ACT between 12-15Z this morning. Low chances for MVFR cigs exist 
at the D10 sites, but have only included a TEMPO group from 13-15Z
as guidance probabilities are low and models are at times keeping
winds aloft more southwest. Any MVFR cigs that occur will lift 
fairly quickly by mid-morning.

Higher chances for MVFR cigs and visibilities are expected over 
the course of Monday morning, as a cold front draws near North and
Central Texas. Have only included VCSH and OVC015 at DFW starting
at 9AM on Monday, as the timeframe is past the 24 hour mark at 
all other TAF sites. MVFR cigs could devolve into IFR as the front
moves through, but this will be handled by future TAF issuances.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  74  52  68  48 /  40 100  60  10   0 
Waco                70  79  53  73  45 /  20  90  60   5   0 
Paris               67  74  52  65  44 /  30  90  80  20   0 
Denton              66  74  48  68  42 /  50 100  60  10   0 
McKinney            67  74  49  67  43 /  40 100  70  20   0 
Dallas              69  74  52  68  49 /  40 100  60  10   0 
Terrell             69  76  52  67  45 /  30 100  70  10   0 
Corsicana           71  78  55  69  47 /  20  90  70  10   0 
Temple              69  79  52  73  45 /  20  90  50   5   0 
Mineral Wells       65  75  48  71  44 /  50  90  40   5   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$