702 
FXUS62 KJAX 162332
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
732 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Tuesday]

VFR conditions will persist for most sites overnight and into 
Monday morning with chances for reduced visibility at VQQ in the
early morning hours. Showers and storms will build in over the
forecast area during the day on Monday with a potential for 
for the formation of marginally severe storms. Prevailing surface
winds will build out of the SW with speeds reaching 6-10 knots 
with gusts of up to 15 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [328 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022

High pressure and dry air mass quickly gets pushed east into the
Western Atlantic tonight, and expect increasing high clouds, as
well as light southwest flow that will bring some increase in low
level moisture and potential for low stratus/patchy fog late
tonight, mainly over inland areas of SE GA and the Suwannee River
Valley. Milder temps expected with lows around 60 degrees inland
and mid/upper 60s along the Atlantic Coast/St Johns River.


.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Strongest cold frontal passage of the fall season on track in the
short term period. This feature will approach the region early
Monday with scattered to numerous pre-frontal showers and embedded
storms breaking out by the afternoon hours, mainly across Coastal
SE GA and most of NE FL where the deeper moisture is available
while lingering dry air across inland SE GA will limit storm
activity there. Main threats from the storms will be gusty winds
of 40-60 mph, with some isolated severe storms possible along the
I-95 corridor and St Johns River Basin, as storm activity reaches
these areas during peak heating with highs well into the 80s and 
possible interaction with weak sea breeze pinned near the Atlantic
Coast. This activity will shift offshore during the evening 
hours, and another round of widely scattered showers and isolated 
storms can be expected with the actual frontal passage later 
Monday night, which will push offshore Tuesday Morning. Short 
range models have some differences in how fast clearing skies take
place on rest of the day on Tuesday with most of the colder air 
mass not arriving until Tuesday Night. Max temps will likely still
be able to rebound into the 70s for NE FL, while SE GA will hold
in the mid/upper 60s. More significant clear skies and coldest air
of the season arrives Tuesday Night, with lows falling to around
40 degrees across inland SE GA, 40s elsewhere over inland areas,
and near 50 degrees along the coast. North winds around 10 mph
through the night will allow for wind chill values to fall into
the mid/upper 30s for SE GA, and into the upper 30s for inland NE
FL, but likely too much wind for any patchy frost formation late
Tuesday Night.


.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Colder and drier than normal air mass remains in place through 
the end of the week, with potential for some lows in the mid/upper
30s across inland SE GA for Thursday/Friday Mornings with some
patchy frost possible, lows in the 40s expected elsewhere. Near
record low Maximum temps only in the 60s on Wednesday, will slowly
rebound into the 70s for Thu/Fri. Long-range models still
struggling with next long wave trough development for next weekend
with the latest ECMWF showing cut-off low pressure system aloft
with strong surface low pressure off the FL East Coast. For now
model blends are still suggesting seasonable temps and onshore
Northeast flow developing with some coastal showers expected, but
still overall dry conditions over inland areas, definitely lower
confidence forecast for next weekend time frame.


.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022

High pressure will dominate the weather pattern until a cold 
front approaches the region Monday evening and eventually passing 
across area waters Tuesday morning. Breezy offshore winds will 
develop ahead of the front on Monday and shift northwesterly 
Tuesday behind it. Winds will shift northeasterly and onshore by 
Thursday as high pressure builds from the west and then to the 
north during the latter half of next week. Small craft exercise
caution headlines look like a lock from Monday Night through
Wednesday Night with the cold frontal passage and cold air
advection pattern in Northwest and North flow. Will be close, but
Small Craft Advisories may need to posted following the frontal
passage if trends continue.

Rip Currents/Surf: Marginal Moderate risk of rip currents will 
linger into Monday/Tuesday despite the offshore flow that
develops, with surf/breakers around 2 feet or so.


.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Southwest flow will increase ahead of an approaching cold front on
Monday with scattered to numerous showers and embedded storms 
breaking out ahead of the front by the afternoon hours, mainly 
across Northeast Florida and coastal Southeast Georgia, with the 
main threat as strong gusty winds. Much drier and colder air mass 
will filter into the region for Tuesday and Wednesday with 
critical humidities and winds possible, and at least elevated fire
weather headlines are likely, but still too early for any Red 
Flag headlines.


.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Still expecting brief high tidal peaks of Minor Flooding around 
1.5 ft MHHW along the St Johns River basin in Eastern Putnam 
county, and will keep Coastal Flood Advisory in place for early
this week. The offshore flow on Monday and Tuesday may serve to
help push more water of the St Johns River Basin and end these
Coastal Flood Advisory headlines.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  60  83  53  67  39 /  10  20  20   0   0 
SSI  66  82  60  70  48 /  10  40  30  10   0 
JAX  62  85  61  74  46 /  10  60  30  10  10 
SGJ  65  84  65  76  51 /  10  60  30  20  10 
GNV  63  84  63  75  45 /  10  60  20  10  10 
OCF  63  85  65  77  47 /  10  60  20  20  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...GA...None.
AM...None.
&&