501 
FXUS64 KEWX 162324
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
624 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Mesoanalysis/Synopsis: A busy afternoon surface map highlights what 
should be an active short term forecast period. Connected to last 
night's storms over the ArkLaTex, an outflow boundary was analyzed 
along a line extending from San Angelo to Lampasas to Temple. The 
feature has been able to withstand the test of surface heating 
thanks to remnant cloud debris, shower activity, and attendant cold 
pool preservation to its north. Stark temperature contrast is thus 
evident across the boundary, as evidenced by the 85 versus 69 degree 
18Z surface temps observed at Georgetown and Waco respectively. The 
well-advertised cold front lags to the north of the decaying cold 
pool and outflow boundary, currently evident from Corsicana west to 
just north of San Angelo. Isolated showers and storms have been 
observed across Lavaca and DeWitt Counties along the sea breeze. 
Above the surface, an upper level low continues to rotate over the 
AZ-NM border vicinity. An accompanying speed max accompanies the 
low, and is beginning to emerge into West Texas from Chihuahua and 
Sonora. 

This Afternoon: Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible over the 
far southeastern CWA along the sea breeze through sunset. Additional 
spotty activity is possible across portions of the far northeast in 
the vicinity of the outflow boundary discussed above. Most areas 
will remain dry through the dinner hour. Expect highs ranging from 
the low to mid 80s in the Rio Grande Plains to the low 90s across 
the Coastal Plains and I-35 corridor. 

Tonight: The best precipitation chances of the short term continue 
to reside in this time period. We continue to anticipate widespread 
shower and thunderstorm development over the Serranias del Burro 
Mountains and lower Trans-Pecos later this evening as the upper 
level low and its attendant speed max begin to overspread the region 
and interact with the advancing cold front. Activity should reach 
the Rio Grande by Midnight. While disagreement still exists amongst 
individual CAM solutions, there is broad consensus that storms will 
begin to organize as bulk shear values in the 40-50 knot range 
settle in overhead. Most solutions show some sort of mesoscale 
convective system developing during the predawn hours, tracking 
southeast through the Winter Garden into moisture and instability 
pooling along the nocturnal low level jet axis in place across the 
region. Given the high (1.50-2 inch) precipitable water values in 
place ahead of the storms, this activity would be capable of 
producing heavy rainfall along its track. Precise numbers remain 
difficult to pin down, though most guidance indicates totals ranging 
from one to two inches with isolated four inch pockets possible over 
the Winter Garden and Rio Grande Plains. Flooding concerns are 
overall low given the ongoing drought and progressive forward 
motions of storms. Isolated damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH 
are also possible. SPC continues a marginal risk in its day 1 
convective outlook in light of this potential. Expect activity to be 
lighter and more scattered outside of the Rio Grande Plains and 
Winter Garden. 

Tomorrow: Convection alluded to above will likely be ongoing across 
the far southwest through the first part of the morning before 
moving into Brush Country. Overrunning showers and thunderstorms 
remain possible through the afternoon hours, though considerable 
uncertainty regarding coverage in the wake of the predawn activity 
remains. Have help precip chances in the grids through sunset, 
though widespread rainfall is not expected through the afternoon 
hours. 

Tomorrow Night: Drying should start to commence behind the front, 
helping to start shut down precip chances. Can't entirely rule out 
an isolated, overrunning shower through daybreak Tuesday, but 
overall coverage should be low with dry air advection in progress.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Some lingering showers are possible Tuesday morning for areas
generally south of a Del Rio to Pleasanton line. Chances for showers
are low and if models trend faster with the drying behind the front,
rain chances may need to be removed for Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, a
dry forecast is in store across the remainder of south central 
Texas. Gusty northeast winds along with a decrease in cloud cover can
be expected behind the cold front for Tuesday afternoon as surface 
high pressure remains over the region. Highs will generally be in the
60s to near 70 degrees. Winds should diminish quickly around sunset 
and with clear skies, light winds and dry air in place we will see 
excellent radiational cooling. This will drop overnight lows into the
mid 30s to mid 40s across south central Texas. The coolest readings 
will be across the Hill Country and nearby low-lying areas along the 
I-35 corridor. Surface high pressure weakens and moves east on 
Wednesday as temperatures slowly begin to rebound with highs expected
to warm back into the mid 60s to lower 70s. A surface low developing
just north of the region will bring southerly winds back to most 
areas Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Overnight lows will 
continue to remain below normal, but should manage to warm back into 
the 40s for most areas. 

For the remainder of the forecast period (Friday through Sunday), the
flow aloft over the central and high plains transitions from
northwest to southwest and increases. This will lead to strong
surface cyclogenesis across the central U.S. plains states. For our
area, this will lead to occasionally gusty south winds and a warming
trend. At this time, no precipitation is expected through the above
mentioned period. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

VFR conditions begin the TAF period, prior to the pattern turning 
more active as a front and upper disturbance begin to influence the 
region's weather. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms will be 
possible tonight through tomorrow morning. KDRT is expected to be 
the most impacted of the aerodrome sites. Greatest chances will be 
from the overnight through the predawn hours, when prevailing 
TSRA/-TSRA has been maintained at each site. Heavier rain and storm 
activity will also likely occur concurrently with widespread low 
ceiling and visibility reductions that will be in the IFR to MVFR 
range. The precipitation chances should gradually taper moving into 
and through Monday afternoon, with ceilings improving back to VFR 
levels at AUS, SAT and SSF into and through the afternoon. KDRT is
expected to remain IFR through much of Monday before improving back
to MVFR levels in the late afternoon. Winds will shift and become
breezy out of the north behind the front tonight through the day on
Monday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              63  68  52  67 /  50  50  10   0 
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  64  69  50  68 /  50  40  10   0 
New Braunfels Muni Airport     67  70  54  70 /  40  40  20  10 
Burnet Muni Airport            60  65  49  66 /  60  50  10   0 
Del Rio Intl Airport           67  71  54  65 /  80  70  40  10 
Georgetown Muni Airport        61  66  48  66 /  60  50  10   0 
Hondo Muni Airport             69  71  53  69 /  50  60  40  10 
San Marcos Muni Airport        64  70  51  69 /  50  40  20  10 
La Grange - Fayette Regional   66  74  54  69 /  40  40  20   0 
San Antonio Intl Airport       68  71  54  68 /  40  50  30  10 
Stinson Muni Airport           70  73  58  70 /  40  50  30  10 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Quigley
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...Brady