129 
FXUS65 KBOU 161556
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
956 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Stratus deck was actually able to fill in a little bit this
morning and lower. There is still some weak upslope/mass
convergence noted along the Front Range, so appears only a 
slow/gradual dissipation during peak heating/mixing is the way to 
go. That also means temperatures will remain on the cooler side, 
and this is reflected well in the current forecast. Perhaps just 
some slight nudging downward in/near the more persistent cloud 
deck. 

Widespread frost/freezing temps expected across the plains
tonight. We may end up adding a Frost Advisory for the Denver and
Boulder metro areas, but the more significant freeze will be found
over the plains where clearing skies and a relatively dry airmass
should allow most areas to drop to 32F or colder. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Low stratus clouds continue to hover across our region this morning 
which can be seen on GOES-16 satellite imagery. An upper level 
ridge slowly pushes eastward entering the Central Plains. This 
pattern will allow dry conditions and quiet weather to prevail 
through tonight. 700mb winds remain weak between 10-15kts which is
expected due to the stable airmass in place. NAMNEST model 
soundings indicate mid level moisture lingering through this 
afternoon thus expecting daytime heating will be minimal as 
stratus begins to diminish by late afternoon. Afternoon 
temperatures will reach mid 50s to low 60s for the plains and 
urban corridor. Mountains and valleys will reach the mid 40s to 
low 50s this afternoon. 

As stratus diminishes this evening, temperatures across most of 
the eastern plains and Palmer Divide will drop as low as 28. A 
Freeze Warning covers these areas starting midnight through 9 AM 
Monday morning.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 256 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022

North-northwest flow aloft will prevail Monday and Tuesday around
a ridge off to the west, centered over the Great Basin and 
Northern Rockies. To the east, a large closed low will be over the
Great Lakes. The airmass will be very dry and temperatures will 
be near normal. Monday night/Tuesday morning will be chilly again 
across eastern Colorado. Even though the airmass warms a little, 
very dry air, clear skies, and light winds will produce optimal 
radiational cooling conditions. Lows are expected to drop into the
upper 20s to mid 30s for most of northeast Colorado. 

The upper level ridge off to the west begins to break down 
Wednesday and drift southeast. North-northwest flow aloft will 
decrease and the airmass will warm. Highs are expected to reach 
the mid 70s across northeast Colorado. Flow aloft backs to the 
northwest Thursday and west Thursday night. Whats left of the 
ridge will be south of the area by Friday. Little change in the 
warm dry airmass for Thursday with highs again in the 70s over 
northeast Colorado. For Friday and next weekend, expect some sort 
of westerly flow aloft with a more progressive pattern. Could see 
a trough over the northwest part of the country late next weekend.
Overall details are still unclear from Friday on, so will have 
low PoPs in the forecast the beginning Saturday afternoon in the 
mountains and then spreading east for the entire area for Sunday. 
A westerly flow should keep temperatures at or above average. If 
the trough digs far enough south, if could bring precipitation to 
the area and snow where cold enough. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 956 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Stratus deck ranging from 3000-5000 ft AGL across the Denver area
TAF sites will likely be a little slower to dissipate, especially
with some cirrus noted over the top. There may be some brief 
breaks, but overall broken ceilings and ILS conditions will 
persist through at least 20Z, with a chance that it lasts til 
22-23Z. Thereafter, visual landing conditions will develop and 
persist through the rest of the TAF period. 

Light northeasterly winds today will transition to light 
southerly drainage winds by 03Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Monday for 
COZ038-041>051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...AD
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Barjenbruch