806 
FXUS64 KHUN 161433
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
933 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 933 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Light showers can be seen on radar ahead of a cold front 
currently pushing south through southern MO and into TN. Expect 
the rain to remain just to our north as the steering flow is 
predominantly westerly to the south of the trough axis. Will 
remain in a warm sectored airmass today, with increasing moisture 
advected by southwesterly sfc flow. Moisture convergence will 
increase ahead of the cold front later this afternoon and evening,
and have tweaked PoPs up slightly along the AL/TN border. 
Overall, expect coverage to be limited and primarily confined to 
areas along and north of the TN River this afternoon and evening. 
Have maintained the highest PoPs (50%) across southern middle TN 
around and just after sunset, with a few rumbles of thunder 
possible. Rainfall amounts should remain below 0.25", with very 
little if any impacts. Otherwise, look for highs near 80 degrees 
this afternoon with increasing cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night) 
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Precipitation will shift east of the area late this evening, as
the cold front pushes southeast and upper level support wanes.
Much cooler and drier air will advect into the region Monday with
highs in the 60s. Strong cold advection will persist Monday night
into Tuesday, with temperatures dipping into the upper 20s in
southern middle TN and lower 30s. Have hoisted a Freeze Watch in
our TN counties. Deep layer cold northerly flow will continue 
through Wednesday as well as a high amplitude trough digging into 
the eastern CONUS. A hard freeze is likely for some areas on 
Wednesday morning, with lows in the middle 20s to upper 20s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Unseasonably cold/dry air will remain entrenched across the mid TN
Valley heading into mid week, as a large dome of high pressure out 
of the Plains states builds eastward into much of the region. 
Freezing conditions are once again expected Thu morning, before a 
gradual warming trend develops by the end the work week, with the 
sfc highs drifting further east into the southern Atlantic Coast. 
Afternoon highs will climb more into the seasonal lower/mid 70s with 
the onset of the weekend period, while overnight lows return to the 
lower/mid 40s early Sat. This overall pattern will also maintain 
mostly sunny/clear skies into the first half of the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

VFR flight weather conditions are expected for most of the period.
Ceilings will remain above 060agl, although a few -SHRA or
possibly TSRA may yield lower ceilings briefly, but this areal
coverage is uncertain. A cold front will shift winds to the
northwest by ~05Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for 
     TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...17