672 
FXUS61 KCLE 161405
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1005 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridges into the region through the morning. A 
cold front moves across the area this afternoon. Low pressure 
will then develop over the northern Great Lakes and meander 
across the region through the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
No big changes to the forecast this morning. Temperatures have
recovered into the 40s and 50s and the frost threat has ended.
Some areas of clouds remain in the area this AM. They will clear
by this afternoon and give a decent window of sunny conditions.

Previous Discussion...
5H jet moving through the upper level trough is assisting with 
the development of cloud cover across the region. Cant 
completely rule out a passing sprinkle across the region. The 
best chances of this occurring are from Marion to Youngstown. 
These clouds are messing with temperatures and keeping them 
warmer than anticipated across portions of the frost advisory. 
Will leave it up for now but may cancel early if temperatures 
continue to warm up. In any event there still should be 
patchy/areas of frost across the OH portion of the advisory. A 
decent frost should still occur across NW PA. 

Skies then clear in the wake of this jet energy as another cold
front moves across the area through the afternoon. Highs today
should warm into the 60's for most locations. 

The next ripple of jet energy arrives tonight with some showers
developing across NE OH into NW PA. The greatest coverage should
be out over the lake. It will still be cool across the region 
tonight but with increased cloud cover and winds remaining above
8 mph we shouldn't have to deal with any widespread frost. Lows
tonight on the mid/upper 30's. Warmer along the lakeshore with 
40's common from Cleveland to Ripley.

Upper level low pressure digs into the central Great Lakes
Monday. Showers increase in coverage over the lake first and
attempt to move a bit more onto the north shore of Ohio during
the afternoon. heaviest of the rain should stay out over the
lake with a significant band of lake enhanced rainfall
anticipated. Instability over the lake looks impressive so 
there will be thunder over the water. Will be interesting to see
how far inland the thunder can reach by late afternoon into the
evening. Highs on Monday should reach into the 40's but it will
feel much cooler with the gusty westerly winds. Most locations 
will have wind chills in 30's through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Large upper level low pressure system descends south into the Great 
Lakes region during the first half of this forecast period and it 
becomes the weather maker for the local area. Strong cold air 
advection is expected to wrap in from the northwest and west Monday 
night into Tuesday along with some wrap around moisture. Models
continue to advertise deep moisture across the forecast area 
during this forecast period. Lake enhancement should aid in 
additional precipitation amounts in northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania. As 850 MB air temperatures continue to remain 
consistent with each model run between -4 and -5 degrees C. 
Instability over the lake still supporting extreme as inversion 
height approaches 17000 feet and lake induced CAPE approaching 
2000 J/Kg. Definitely expecting some rumbles of thunder with the
lake enhancement expected; especially when parameters reach 
their peak Monday night. Model soundings also support threat for
accumulating snow in the higher elevations away from Lake Erie 
in the northeast. Rain/snow mixed can't be ruled out across the 
rest of the inland areas of the forecast area Monday night. Snow
accumulations around 2 to 3 inches expected northeast areas. 
Precipitation changes over to all rain during the day Tuesday 
and continuing through Wednesday night as coldest air begins to 
retreat out to the east. Fair weather begins to return back to 
the west and south Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level low pressure over the Great Lakes region will quickly 
begin to exit to the northeast Thursday but an upper level 
replacement trough should settle into the region by Thursday 
afternoon. This trough will extend into the deep south and the Gulf 
of Mexico and quickly advance east of the area by Friday. This 
should result in surface trough moving east across the area in 
response to the upper level trough followed by some weak broad 
ridging across the area. During this process, much drier air 
should begin to filter into the area along with the beginning of
warm air advection into the area. Models are trending toward a 
significant warm-up as we head into early next week. Otherwise, 
fair weather should be the rule through much of the period after
lake effect retreats to the east. Temperatures should see a 
gradual warming trend as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
The remaining showers that are located near and south of a line
from Marion to Medina to Corry will continue to move east 
through 14Z. They look too light to mention in the TAF's with 
no restriction to visibility anticipated.

Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through tonight. A few 
showers may develop off the lake and hug the lakeshore after 06Z
Monday. If these can move onshore they would only impact KBKL 
and KERI. 

Light southerly winds become westerly through the afternoon as 
a cold front sweeps across the region. Winds increase slightly 
with the frontal passage but should not exceed 10 knots. A few 
gusts to 20 knots may occur mid to late afternoon with some 
deeper mixing. 

Outlook...Non-VFR with lake effect rain/snow showers across NE
OH into NW PA late tonight through Wednesday. Elsewhere scattered
showers should produce non-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory was dropped earlier this morning as winds 
diminished across the area. This is short lived as another 
round of stronger winds should arrive tonight from the west. We 
will likely need another small craft advisory for later tonight 
and have it continue through at least Monday night as a rather 
strong low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region. 
Otherwise, as the surface low and resultant troughs and cold 
fronts interact with the local area, there will be brief periods
where winds increase and cause small craft advisory conditions 
through Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Lombardy