688 
FXUS65 KCYS 161132
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
532 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) 
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022

All models and ensembles in good agreement through Tuesday with no
changes to the previous forecast package. Models show the weather
pattern dominated by the strong upper level Rex Block over the 
western quarter of the United States. Strong 584dm upper level 
high centered over the Idaho/Montana/Washington area today will 
drift east through early this week, with the center of the high 
over western Wyoming by Tuesday and the upper level low over
Arizona weakening. Rex Block is expected to weaken by this time 
period, but the strong upper level ridge axis will remain nearly 
stationary with the storm track well to the north. This means a 
continuation of tranquil and dry conditions over southeast Wyoming
and western Nebraska to start off the week.

Cooler temperatures will remain over the area today and tonight, 
but it should be seasonable with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s, 
and lows ranging from the mid 20s to mid 30s (coldest across the 
high valleys of Carbon and Albany counties, including Laramie). 
Expect a slow warming trend to begin on Monday, but kept 
temperatures along and east of the I-25 corridor near or slightly 
below guidance due to cooler northerly flow aloft remaining over 
the High Plains. Expect several more locations to reach freezing
either Sunday night or Monday night with guidance showing clear
skies and dry conditions, allowing for very good radiational
cooling at night. Once the upper level high enters into western
Wyoming, daytime temperatures should respond with highs climbing
into the 60s to possibly around 70 in a few locations along the
I-25 corridor. POP will be zero tonight through Tuesday afternoon. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) 
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Dry with near to above-average temperatures until the weekend.

2) Next chance for precipitation over the weekend. Snow possible, 
but high uncertainty at the moment.

DISCUSSION: Well, there is not a ton to talk about in the forecast 
until the weekend. Afternoon high temperatures in the 60s to low-
70s. Overnight low temperatures in the in the upper 20s to low-30s 
due to clear skies and radiational cooling. While conditions will be 
dry in the afternoons, fire weather concerns are low through 
Thursday due to below-critical winds. Friday, ahead of the trough 
passage over the weekend, conditions will still be dry, but winds 
will increase to near-critical, gusts 20 to 30 mph possible. Current 
long term guidance has the trough entering the western portions of 
the CWA Saturday morning. The GFS is showing 40 to 50 knot winds at 
700 mb Saturday afternoon. The Jet Stream then positions itself 
across the whole CWA, likely leading to high winds early next week. 
There are some slight variations in the positioning of the Jet 
Stream, but both the GFS and ECMWF are showing it loosely positioned 
west to east across southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle. 
Temperatures also drop with this cold front bringing temperatures 
from 8C in the afternoon to -8C. Precipitation is possible with this 
frontal passage, primarily in the mountains and higher elevations. 
Depending on the timing of the precipitation, if it falls at night 
with the near- to below-freezing temperatures, lower elevations may 
also see a few flakes. As the trough is still 6 to 7 days out, there 
is high uncertainty as to the potential impacts. Something to keep 
an eye on though!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 526 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Mostly VFR conditions across TAF terminals in southeast Wyoming
and the Nebraska panhandle, with the exception of KLAR, KCDR, and
KAIA. KLAR is the spot most confident in MVFR to IFR cigs between
12Z and 16Z, less confident, but it is still possible for MVFR to IFR
cigs at KCDR and KAIA between 12Z/13Z and 16Z. Gusty winds 
expected this afternoon 20 to 25 knots at KSNY and KAIA. Mostly 
clear skies expected across the board through the remainder of the
TAF period after 16Z. 


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022

No fire weather concerns today through the middle of the week 
with relatively light winds and daytime minimum relative 
humidities above 25 percent through Monday. A warming trend is 
expected this upcoming week with temperatures trending into the 
70s by Thursday. Relative humidities will trend lower by Wednesday
and Thursday. 

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...LK
AVIATION...LK
FIRE WEATHER...TJT