431 
FXUS63 KGRB 160352
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1052 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

A passing upper shortwave and some weak WAA through the mid levels 
kept light precipitation in place through the late morning to
afternoon, although amounts realized at the surface were fairly 
light. As the initial shortwave from this morning departs, broad
isentropic lift will also be on its way out ahead of an
approaching cold front. Combined, this should bring an end to the
scattered light pops we had through the afternoon for most of the
area. Thus,slowly lifted pops everywhere through the evening
except the far north, where the arriving push of cold air combined
with another shortwave may produce a few initial rounds of
snowfall.

Sunday, winds profiles are increasingly expected to veer to the 
north, setting up an ever more favorable lake effect precipitation
scenario across northern Wisconsin. Additionally, LFQ of a 500mb 
jet will push into central Wisconsin during the afternoon, which
will likely support another round of light scattered shower
activity for the area. Thus, expanded pops over the area for much
of Sunday, but expect any accumulations to be fairly light. 
Forecast soundings still suggest primarily rain as the dominant 
precipitation type for early Sunday morning through the afternoon
for most of the area. Significant accumulating snow will become
then become increasingly likely for far northern Wisconsin by 
Sunday evening through Monday morning as temperatures through the
layer cool.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

A reinforcing shot of cold air will bring colder temperatures to
the region for the beginning part of the week along with lake
effect snow and very windy conditions. Areas along the lakeshore,
which have yet to have a hard freeze, will likely drop to around
30 degrees Sunday night. Therefore, will issue a Freeze Watch for
these areas. Further north, lake effect snow will commence with
delta T values in the low 20s with a favorable north-northwest
wind direction Sunday night and Monday. Snowfall totals during
this time could reach 2 to 4 inches across the far north, with up
to 5 inches possible in the far northwest corner of Vilas County.
At this time a long duration Winter Weather Advisory looks likely
as amounts are below warning criteria.

Very gusty winds will continue Monday night and Tuesday as the
best lake effect snow shifts a bit further east over the Michigan
UP region. Additional snowfall totals across the far north could
total another inch or two Monday night and Tuesday, with the
highest amounts across Vilas County.

High pressure building in from the west should then bring a period
of quiet weather to the region by the middle of the week, as
temperatures slowly warm through the end of the week and into the
early part of next weekend on the backside of the high. The quiet
weather is expected to last through the early part of next
weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

A northwest flow of cold air across Lake Superior and
the bay will continue to produce cloud cover over most of the
area over the next several days. MVFR ceilings are likely west of
an IMT to STE line tonight with VFR ceilings further east.

An upper level disturbance will move south across Wisconsin Sunday
and bring rain showers and MVFR/IFR conditions across central and
north central Wisconsin and MVFR conditions across the east central
portion of the state. 

Lake effect snow is expected Sunday night and Monday across far
northern Wisconsin. Heavy snow and gusty winds are likely at LNL
and D25, with snow showers and some accumulations at EGV/ARV and
to a lesser extent RHI. Snow showers and MVFR conditions are
expected elsewhere Sunday night and Monday.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

Combination of a tight pressure gradient and strong cold air
advection will bring blustery conditions to the region Monday 
through Tuesday. Winds are expected to gust into the 35 to 45 knot
range from late Sunday night through Tuesday evening; therefore,
will continue the Gale Watch for both the Bay and the nearshore 
waters of Lake Michigan.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for 
WIZ022-040-050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Uhlmann
LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......RDM
MARINE.........Kurimski