717 
FXUS61 KBGM 082358
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
758 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually build into the region through the
remainder of the weekend, with a weak frontal boundary staying 
to our north. A weak disturbance may bring a shower or two on 
Monday, but another cold front will bring our next chance for 
more widespread rain on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM Update...

The forecast remains on track this evening with clouds starting
to break up more across the forecast area. 

Afternoon discussion continues below...

With the northwest flow off of Lake Ontario clouds have been
slow to clear out. Winds are starting to become more westerly
which should allow the clouds to break up this evening south of
Syracuse and the NY Thruway. Some lake effect moisture will 
keep a few showers around along with clouds further north into 
the evening. While most of central New York should clear out 
tonight, steady winds of 5-10 mph are expected to keep 
widespread frost from forming even with some lows in the 30's to
around 40. Further south and east for NE PA and the western 
Catskills, winds are modeled to be lighter with more in the way 
of clear skies. This should result in a larger window for 
radiational cooling and frost formation. The frost advisory was
expanded to include Bradford and Susquehanna counties with this
in mind. 

A mostly sunny day as high pressure builds into the area. The
sunshine should result temperatures rising well into the 50's
with a few 60's. However, a weak frontal boundary looks to have
just enough lift and moisture Sunday afternoon and evening for
another round of clouds and a spotty shower or two north of the
Southern Tier in NY. Low temperatures trending warmer closer to
40 as a result of more cloud cover. Any QPF looks very light
through the near term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update

For Monday a short wave trough will move through Central NY and
the northern tier of PA and we will see increasing mid level
clouds with a few scattered showers also possible, especially
across CNY. Forecast soundings show rather dry air in the lowest
5k feet of the atmosphere, giving an inverted-V look...this
should act to keep any rainfall amounts very light...less than a
tenth of an inch. Capped PoPs at around 30%, except up to 50%
across the central southern tier and northwest fingerlakes. 
Many of the global models hardly show any QPF for this period, 
so it could also just end up cloudy with virga.


Any isolated to scattered showers will diminish and end by 
nightfall as high pressure builds in by Tuesday morning. NBM 
suggests minimums won't be cold enough for widespread frost but 
wouldn't be surprised if this changes some. Right now, the best
potential for any frost would be across northern Oneida county,
the Catskills and Steuben County. For now, we will leave frost 
out. Tuesday looks like a nice fall day with plenty of sunshine
and seasonable temperatures with high pressure in control. For
Tuesday night an upper level ridge remains over the area, with
high pressure still in control. Winds do turn southerly which
should act to keep overnight lows up a bit, mainly in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
255 PM Update

For Wednesday, the surface high moves offshore and southerly 
winds spread across NY and PA leading to a warmer day mainly in 
the 60s. Some clouds will spread across the region as the next 
front moves into the Great Lakes region. Heading into the late
week time frame, this time period is dominated by a strong cold
front that is progged to move into the Eastern U.S. There are
still some timing differences with the exact frontal passage 
but all models have our area into a chillier air mass by 
Saturday. There also could potentially be some significant rains
as well depending on how fast the frontal boundary moves 
through, and if an area of low pressure forms along it. There 
is enough divergence in model solutions that, in collaboration
with surroundings WFOs we decided to cap PoPs in the high end
likely range late Thursday into Thursday night as opposed to the
categorical PoPs the NBM was suggesting...this was again, mainly
due to uncertainty in the timing. The 12z deterministic guidance
is starting to come into better agreement for this Thursday & 
Thursday nigh timeframe...so PoPs may continue to increase in 
future updates. 24 hour rainfall is averaging 1-2 inches in the
deterministic guidance, as pwats reach 1.4 inches ahead of the
front. By Friday, most guidance agrees the front will be through
the area with cooler temperatures in place and perhaps a few
lingering showers or lake effect. Staying cooler than average
heading into next Saturday, but generally looking dry at this
early vantage point. Highs will be in the 50s with overnight
lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
West-southwest flow will carry some lake-effect clouds across
the area through the evening, but bases look to stay around 4500
to 5500 feet with intermittent ceilings, all well within VFR 
thresholds. Light-but-steady winds in the 3 to 6 knot range
should keep valley fog from forming at any TAF sites, but patchy
fog in more sheltered valleys in eastern areas will be possible.
Winds will become W to WNW on Sunday, with a few afternoon gusts
approaching 20 knots. VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

Outlook...

Sunday Night... Mainly VFR. Westerly wind gusts continue around
20 knots Sunday afternoon.

Monday through Wednesday night...Mainly VFR.

Thursday... Possible restrictions with showers likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPH/MWG
NEAR TERM...HLC/MWG
SHORT TERM...DJN/MJM
LONG TERM...DJN/MJM
AVIATION...MPH/MWG