696 
FXUS64 KBMX 082041
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
341 PM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022

...New FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday) 
Issued at 1257 PM CDT SAT OCT 8 2022

It's cooler out there today with a slight breeze and high clouds 
exiting to the east. North-northwesterly flow up to around 650mb is 
advecting southward a cool, dry continental airmass which will hold 
temps in the 70s for most areas this afternoon and lower 80s 
southeast. High pressure will continue to build over the Southeast 
region tonight as chilly conditions develop with clear skies and 
light to calm winds. The forecast continues to mirror some of the 
cooler model solutions with low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s 
possible in our cool, valley locations of the northeastern counties. 
Patchy frost may also develop in this area towards sunrise, 
especially as winds continue to diminish, but coverage still appears 
contained to those localized valley locations, so will withhold a 
Frost Advisory at this time. Mostly sunny skies again tomorrow with 
temperatures remaining several degrees below average as ridging 
holds strong over the area.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 248 PM CDT SAT OCT 8 2022

For the extended, the wetter trend continues, with 0.5-2.0 inches
of rain expected with the front near the end of the forecast
period. Made adjustments to pops/wx to reflect recent trends in
timing of the front and rainfall. Rain chances start to increase
Wednesday afternoon and evening, ahead of an approaching cold 
front. The front passes clears the area Thursday night, with rain
chances ending.

14

89^GSatterwhite

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 8 2022

/Frontal passage next week aims to break our dry spell/

A shortwave ridge axis is progged to move across the region early
in the period/Monday-Tuesday, aiding in continued inactive weather
yet some modification of temperatures after the weekend post-frontal
air mass. 

Dew points will be on the increase heading into midweek as the 
center of a surface ridge moves eastward/off the East Coast and 
troughing approaches from the west. A few showers may develop 
Wednesday afternoon in association with a surge in PWATs and an 
area of weak lift; however, the main window of ascent, tied to the
front and upper trough, looks to occur sometime Wednesday night 
into Thursday. Ensembles show that rain is favored during this 
time frame, but there is a spread in solutions as to when the bulk
of activity will occur. I've raised rain chances by ~20% from the
previous forecast, now in the 50% range. Assuming this recent 
wetter trend in guidance persists, there may be room to raise 
chances further once some of the model variability is ironed out.
The synoptic pattern should favor a progressive front, with drier
and cooler air moving in behind the front's quick exit. 

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT SAT OCT 8 2022

A cold front is well south of the area, but still working to enhance 
the pressure gradient. This will cause northerly wind gusts of 15-
18kts this afternoon with winds finally decreasing after 00Z. 
Otherwise, no mentionable impacts to flight conditions as high 
pressure builds over the Southeast and stability persists.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Afternoon minimum RH values are forecast to be in the 20 to 30 
percent range Sunday and Monday, with some areas potentially 
falling into the upper teens mainly on Sunday. 20 foot winds will
be from a northerly heading, as high as ~9 mph Sunday (with 
slightly higher gusts), becoming northeasterly around 5-6 mph on 
Monday. No rain is expected. Overall, conditions are forecast to 
remain below red flag criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     36  72  40  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Anniston    41  73  44  78 /   0   0   0   0 
Birmingham  43  73  47  78 /   0   0   0   0 
Tuscaloosa  44  75  47  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Calera      43  74  46  78 /   0   0   0   0 
Auburn      47  75  50  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Montgomery  45  78  48  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Troy        48  78  49  81 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86/Martin
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...86