205 
FXUS63 KSGF 082019
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
319 PM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022

Key Messages:

1. A frost a advisory remain in effect late tonight for a few 
counties east of Springfield.

2. Warmer temperatures are expected starting tomorrow with above 
average temperatures likely Monday through Wednesday.

3. A cold front will bring a good chances for showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday with cooler weather again late in upcoming
work week.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022

Quiet weather over the area today will continue through the
weekend. Our region will be in northwest upper level flow in the
northern branch of a split flow pattern. 

Sfc high pressure that extends from western OK to the Ohio Valley
will shift slowly south. The dry/cool air mass should remain in
place with enough low level decoupling to allow temperatures to
fall back down into the 30s over the far eastern cwfa with some
frost potential. Current frost advisory in effect for tonight 
handles this well and don't plan on any changes. 

Sfc-850mb progs show weak warm air advection developing on Sunday
with a west-southwest wind as the sfc ridge shifts south. This
will boost temperatures into the 70s area wide with a few areas
pushing 80F over the far western cwfa. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) 
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022

Monday: Our region looks to be increasingly influenced by the 
southern branch of the split upper level flow pattern with a 
building ridge aloft over the Mid South ahead of troughing over 
the Rockies. Will continue to see a warming trend with highs in 
the upper 70s/low 80s. Went slightly higher than NBM given a 
southwest sfc wind which can sometimes help boost afternoon 
temperatures.

Tuesday: Overall good agreement and consistency in forecast 
guidance exists. South winds will increase as the upper ridge 
shifts east and troughing deepens to our west. Guidance shows 
stronger sfc winds just to the west over OK and the Flint Hills of
KS, but could still see 30-35 mph gusts in the afternoon over our
far western cwfa. This is already mentioned in the HWO along with
an increase in the Grassland Fire Danger Index/GFDI. Wind/RH 
combination doesn't reach Red Flag criteria, but given the 
extensive drought, will continue to mention the heightened GFDI. 

Above normal temperatures will continue Tuesday. 

Wednesday: While timing difference exist there is good overall
agreement that a strong shortwave will dig southeast into the 
northern and central Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This 
will push a Canadian based sfc front through the region Wednesday-
Wednesday night. Low level flow from the western Gulf of Mexico 
becomes established as the front approaches and blended (NBM) 
guidance trends show an uptick in rain chances. Ensembles show 
probabilities for mlcape values >=500 j/kg to be 50% or less 
(more bullish instability from GFS ensembles versus the ECMWF). 
However, given the increased deep layer shear and at least some 
instability and moisture return, will need to monitor forecast 
trends for the potential of a brief period of strong/severe 
convection along the front.

Thursday-Saturday: Good agreement in guidance for this period with
a cooler/dry push of Canadian air. Coolest day looks to be 
Thursday with a warming trend Friday and Saturday as west- 
southwest winds develop as the sfc high drops south of the area. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR ceilings (mid/high level clouds) to 
start the period with light winds with sfc high pressure extending
from western OK to southern MO and east to the OH Valley. High
pressure will move south-southeast with light south then 
southwest winds becoming established over the area later in the 
taf period. 


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ071-082-083-
     098.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA