599 
FXUS65 KTFX 081731
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1130 AM MDT Sat Oct 8 2022

Updated Aviation Discussion

.SYNOPSIS...
Some patchy morning fog is possible this morning, otherwise expect a 
mix of sun and high clouds today. The quiet weather conditions will 
continue into Monday, along with a nice warming trend for Sunday and 
Monday. It will start to turn windy on Monday over North Central MT, 
while a cold front will move southward through Central MT on 
Tuesday, resulting in cooler temperatures and a chance for mountain 
snow and lower elevation rain showers.

&&

.Update...

Morning fog and/or low stratus continues to impact some valleys
across Southwest and Central Montana, reducing visibility to as
low as 1/4 mile in localized areas. As has been the case for the 
past several days now, expect the fog to dissipate through 10-11am
with increasing sunlight. Additionally, expect the low stratus to
lift through 1pm. Otherwise, expect a pleasant day across all of 
the Northern Rockies, with high temperatures running about 5 
degrees above normal and light winds. - Moldan

&&

.AVIATION...
1130 AM MDT Sat Oct 8 2022 (08/18Z TAF period)

A dry and stable N/NW flow aloft continues across the region with 
VFR conditions prevailing and just some variable/thin high clouds 
through Sunday. Satellite imagery and observations show fog in the 
Helena Valley in the progress of lifting with some lingering stratus 
there dissipating by 19-20z. Surface winds remain light and somewhat 
variable across the area through the period. Hoenisch 

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation 
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM MDT Sat Oct 8 2022/
Today through Sunday...Quiet weather conditions are expected
through the weekend, with mainly just some passing clouds. The
exception will be this morning, with many areas at lower
elevations near 100 percent humidity once again, areas of dense 
fog are likely. As like previous mornings, most of the fog should 
dissipate between 10 and 11 AM.

Columbus Day...This will be the warmest day of the period, with 
afternoon highs about 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Winds will 
increase during the afternoon hours over North Central MT, but 
are expected to remain below warning criteria.

Monday night through Tuesday...This period will be the most active
weather period over the next week. The change this morning is the
forecast models have better agreement that colder air will move
into the region. The air mass will be cold enough on Tuesday
morning, that snow levels are likely to lower all the way down to
the Plains/Valley floors. The precipitation event will only last
about 4 to 8 hours, but the intensity of snowfall could cause some
impacts, especially in the mountains. Snow accumulations look to
range from 2 to 4 inches for elevations above 6000 feet and
generally less than an inch for areas below 6000 feet. This is not
a significant amount of snowfall at lower elevations, but the
heaviest snowfall rates could occur during the morning commute,
which could increase the impacts, especially on bridges, which
freeze over easier at this time of year. Winter highlights might 
be needed for this event. Afternoon highs on Tuesday will likely 
be around 20 degrees colder than Monday.

Wednesday through Saturday...Expect drier conditions to return
under generally a northwesterly flow aloft. It is possible a weak
weather disturbance cloud slide southward through North Central MT
during this period and produce a light passing shower, but overall
the forecast models are keeping it dry at this time. Afternoon
temperatures will slowly warm back up to slightly above normal
readings by the end of the week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  38  71  41 /   0   0   0   0 
CTB  71  36  71  40 /   0   0   0   0 
HLN  69  40  72  41 /   0   0   0   0 
BZN  67  35  71  36 /   0   0   0   0 
WYS  65  25  66  26 /   0   0   0   0 
DLN  66  36  70  37 /   0   0   0   0 
HVR  71  35  72  38 /   0   0   0   0 
LWT  68  38  68  40 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls