391 
FXUS64 KHGX 081711
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1211 PM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022

A weak cold front continues to slowly but surely make its way 
through Southeast Texas. The front is expected to move offshore 
later this morning before sunrise. As surface high pressure and an 
850mb high build in over the Southern Plains, cloud cover will 
scatter out from north to south. This leads into mostly clear skies 
that will prevail throughout the weekend. The upper level trough 
that drove in this morning's cold front is centered over eastern 
Canada with the trough axis extending into the Great Lakes. 
Resultingly...the bulk of the cold and dry air will remain well 
north and east of us. So, we'll still see daytime temperatures in 
the upper 80s to low 90s since the drier air filtering in behind the 
front heats rather efficiently. The flip side is dry air also cools 
efficiently and when combined with light winds and mostly clear 
skies, we'll see a good 25-30°F temperature drop going into tonight 
as lows drop into the low to mid 60s. Areas north of I-10 and east 
of I-45 will find themselves in the upper 50s.

An upper level cutoff low continuing to sit over the Baja Peninsula 
will keep us status quo for the most part going into Sunday with 
zonal flow being induced. However, Sunday will be slightly 
cooler/drier with the 850mb high moving directly overhead along with 
1-2°C cooler 850mb temperatures. The end result is high temperatures 
mainly in the upper 80s. Sunday night's lows will be fairly similar 
to Saturday night albeit a degree or two cooler for most locations. 
Sunday night is also when the upper level cutoff low becomes 
embedded in the flow aloft again. This induces southwesterly flow 
and subtle ridging aloft, which leads to a slight warming trend 
going into early next week.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022

Tranquil weather conditions will prevail through Tuesday as PWs
remain in between 1.0-1.3 inches and mid level subsidence 
persists. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, isolated to 
scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop over the
coastal waters as a surge of moisture pushes into Southeast TX as
a result of Tropical Storm Julia moving over the southwestern 
Gulf of Mexico. Along the upper levels, a trough will also be 
moving over the Southern Plains. By Wednesday morning, moisture 
levels will have already increased to 1.6-1.9 inches, and with the
upper level trough nearby, expect isolated to scattered showers 
and thunderstorms over much of the local area during the day
Wednesday. Then, a cold front will push across the region
Wednesday night into Thursday morning and will enhance shower and
thunderstorm development ahead and along the boundary. Rain
chances will ebb Thursday afternoon as the front moves further
into the Gulf waters and high pressure builds behind it. Dry air
mass draped across the region will bring the local PWs back into 
the 0.5-0.8 inch range, welcoming back those cooler temperatures 
and dew points in the 50s. Look forward to highs in the low 80s on
Friday. Niceeeee. 

24 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022

Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout the TAF period. Light to moderate east/northeasterly 
winds will continue this afternoon, becoming east/southeasterly 
in the evening then later light and variable overnight. Light to 
occasionally moderate easterly flow should resume Sunday morning.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022

Moderate easterly winds and elevated seas will develop this 
afternoon in the wake of a weak cold front, progged to move over 
the local waters around sunrise. Caution flags will be in effect 
this afternoon through Sunday. Winds look to remain close to SCEC
conditions through at least Tuesday as they slowly become onshore,
especially for the offshore waters. Thus, Caution flags may be 
extended till then. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms can be
expected Tuesday night into Thursday as first a surge of moisture
from the outskirts of Tropical Storm Julia enters TX Tuesday 
night into Wednesday and then a cold front moves over the local
waters Thursday morning. Expect moderate to strong northeasterly
winds and elevated seas to develop in the wake of the front 
Thursday evening to Friday morning, which may require Caution 
flags and Advisories for the bays and Gulf waters. Conditions 
during the day Friday. 

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH values this afternoon north of the I-10 corridor will range from 
25%-30% and areas south of the I-10 corridor will range from 30%-40% 
with values closer to ~50% along the coast. Northeasterly to 
easterly winds around 10 mph with gusts near 15 mph prevail for 
today in the wake of an early morning cold front. Neither the winds 
or RH values are at Red Flag criteria, but given the antecedent dry 
conditions (fuel dryness according to Texas A&M Forest Service is 
critically dry for most of Southeast Texas) and worsening drought 
conditions, precautions should be taken if working outdoors with any 
flammable materials. Afternoon RH values north of I-10 will continue 
to range from 25%-35% through early next week before moisture begins 
to return. Fortunately, winds will be lighter after Saturday.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  90  60  88  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)			  90  64  87  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)			  84  73  82  72 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$