020 
FXUS64 KHUN 081434
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
934 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 933 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022

Beautiful Fall morning with crisp, cool air with temps starting 
out in the 50s. Sfc high pressure anchored in Central 
Plains/Midwest will keep conditions dry and mostly clear today. 
The pressure gradient will provide breezy N winds, sustained 
~10kts and gusts up to 20kts, ushering in CAA. Temps will warm up 
into the mid 60s to 70 degrees with the higher terrain in S Middle
TN and NE AL only reaching the lower 60s. This is about 10 
degrees below normal, but don't worry, we will warm back up to 80 
by Tuesday, so enjoy it while it lasts! 

Only minor updates to the hourly T/Td/Wind, otherwise the forecast
for today is on track. And heads up for tonight, there is a Frost
Advisory for Southern Middle TN so be sure to protect those
sensitive plants tonight!  

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 416 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022

We have issued a Frost Advisory valid for 06Z-14Z for our Southern
Middle TN counties. Temperatures are expected to drop into the mid
30s overnight into Sunday morning, accompanied by clear skies,
calm winds, and low dew point depressions (2 degrees or less in
most areas). It is advised to sensitive vegetation and plants or 
bring them indoors, if possible. Low temperatures throughout the 
rest of our County Warning Area will still be unseasonably frigid,
despite not meeting Frost Advisory criteria, dropping into the 
upper 30s to low 40s. Bundle up and dress in warm layers for any 
Sunday morning plans!

Temperatures should warm back up to the upper 60s to low 70s 
Sunday afternoon before dropping back down to the 40s overnight 
into Monday, kicking off the work week with another below-normal, 
unseasonably cold night. Highs return to near-normal temperatures 
for the season on Monday, peaking in the mid to upper 70s before 
dropping yet again to another night in the 40s overnight into 
Tuesday. Juxtapositionally, Tuesday/Wednesday brings above- 
normal high temperatures of upper 70s to low 80s to our forecast 
area as ridging builds over our area. This ridging is short-lived 
as a 500mb high pressure system south of FL forces our mid-level 
flow to be negatively-tiled, setting us up for more positive 
vorticity advection in mid-levels and eventually some 
precipitation later on in the week as we'll undergo another 
pattern change.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday) 
Issued at 416 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022

Scattered to numerous (~40-70%) showers and isolated (~20%) 
thunderstorms will return to the forecast for the first time in 
over two weeks Wednesday night as a cold front moves through after
a very long period without it! Wednesday evening brings increased
RH levels as southerly flow due to a low level jet brings Gulf 
moisture through the TN Valley- with GFS soundings providing 
adequate PWAT values up to 1.33", which is above our 
climatological average for this time of year (1.02" for BMX and 
0.87" for OHX). With the lack of rainfall recently, KBDI values 
are anywhere between 301-700 throughout our CWA, with the higher 
end being in the western portion. Therefore, despite our dry soils
being able to absorb some water, localized flooding can't be 
ruled out late Wednesday night into Thursday in areas that do see 
locally heavy rainfall that approaches 1.5" to 2". Other concerns 
will be lightning and gusty winds. When thunder roars, go indoors!

Dry air will filter back into our area behind the aforementioned
front, bringing sunny/clear conditions and high temps back into 
the 80s on Thursday. The cooler post-frontal temps won't be felt 
until Friday when highs are expected to reside in the upper 60s to
lower 70s, making a great start to the weekend! 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022

VFR conditions and clear skies continue at both TAF sites through
the forecast period. Gusty northerly winds up to 14-18 kts make a
return around 14Z at MSL and HSV, respectively. However, winds 
calm down with sunset at 0Z. 

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...HC