494 
FXUS61 KRLX 080805
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
405 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Mountain clouds and Middle Ohio Valley frost continues through
early this morning. High pressure brings a dry and crisp 
weekend, and maintains quiet weather into the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 254 AM Saturday...

A Frost advisory remains in effect until 9 AM this morning. 

A broad surface high pressure will extend from the central 
U.S., east across the OH Valley into WV this weekend. Meanwhile 
at H850, CAA under northwest flow brings the freezing line south
into the southern coalfields of WV through this afternoon. This
will keep highs in the mid 50s across the lowlands, ranging 
into the upper 30s highest elevations. 

With cold airmass in place, additional radiational cooling could 
drop temperatures into the lower 30s to upper 20s tonight into 
Sunday morning across portions of southeast OH, northeast KY 
and the eastern mountains. Therefore, a Freeze Warning has been 
issued for the Middle Ohio Valley, northeast KY, and the higher 
elevations of the central and northern mountains for tonight 
through Sunday morning. A Frost advisory has been issued for the
reminder of WV and southwest VA from tonight through Sunday 
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...

Surface high pressure is expected to maintain dry weather across the 
area early next week, though a shortwave passing through an upper 
trough may bring increased cloud cover into the area for Monday. 

After a cold Sunday morning with portions of the area reaching 
freezing, daytime temperatures remain below normal. Highs are 
expected to be in the upper 50s to low 60s in the lowlands and 
upper 40s to 50s for the mountains. Sunday night will be cold, 
though a warming trend should allow lows to remain a few degrees
warmer than the previous night. Monday's highs then rise to mid
60s to low 70s in the lowlands, with 50s to low 60s in the 
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...

Dry weather persists into mid week as an upper ridge passes 
over the area and high pressure remains in control at the 
surface. Precipitation chances return as a cold front 
approaches Wednesday night and then crosses through Thursday 
into Thursday night. Precipitation tapers off from west to east
Thursday night into Friday morning as high pressure and drier 
air back into the area behind the front.

A gradual warming trend continues into mid week, allowing 
temperatures to rise slightly above normal by Wednesday. Cloud 
cover should keep highs around normal on Thursday, then 
temperatures fall below normal once again as colder air arrives 
in the wake of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 123 AM Saturday...

A drier and colder airmass is moving in under northerly flow. This 
is allowing for widespread VFR conditions to prevail under clearing 
skies across the western terminals tonight. Across the east, 
lingering low level moisture across the western slopes and the 
eastern mountains will continue causing MVFR stratocu. These 
conditions will likely affect CKB, EKN and BKW through Saturday
morning, even IFR at times in the mountains EKN and BKW.

CRW is at the cloud MVFR cloud edge, expected to clear and become 
VFR later overnight tonight. Patchy dense fog could develop in 
the vicinity of CRW towards 12Z. Otherwise, mainly VFR 
conditions are expected out across the middle Ohio Valley during
this period.

Light north to northwest surface flow into Saturday morning. Then, 
veering to west to southwest Saturday afternoon. 

Light northwest flow aloft through Saturday morning, backing to west 
to northwest Saturday afternoon. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog formation overnight through early 
Saturday morning may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 10/08/22
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    M    H    M    H    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible in morning river valley fog Saturday 
through Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ523>526.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ005.
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ006>011-
     013>020-024>034-039-040-515-517-519-521.
     Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for 
     WVZ516-518-520-522>526.
OH...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ARJ