576 
FXUS62 KTAE 080510
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
110 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Temperatures through the overnight will be milder than the previous 
few evenings due to high clouds moving into our area. Across the 
region, expect lows in the upper 50's to low 60's throughout the 
evening. A shortwave within a broad eastern trough will push a dry 
cold front into our region on Saturday, slightly cooling 
temperatures in the northwest of our CWA with highs in the low to 
mid 80's, accompanied by temperatures in the upper 80's located in 
the southeast ahead of the front. Following the frontal passage, a 
dry airmass will spread into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Another shot of dry air is forecast to push into the region over the 
short term period in the wake of a dry cold front passing through on 
Saturday. Northerly winds will continue Sunday before becoming more 
northeasterly Sunday night as surface high pressure settles over the 
Apalachians. High temperatures on Sunday are forecast in the low to 
mid 80s with low temperatures overnight in the upper 40s to upper 
50s. The drier air pouring into the region will keep an elevated 
fire danger in place for Sunday with relative humidity dropping into 
the low 20% to 35% range in the afternoon. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

A fairly robust moistening trend is forecast to start out the work 
week as surface winds become more easterly with high pressure 
sliding off to the northeast. Through early part of the week, deep 
tropical moisture from Tropical Storm Julia is forecast to move into 
the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf, and some of this moisture is 
forecast to push northeastward towards the area within the 
southwesterly mid-level steering flow. As a result, rain chances 
will begin to return for the latter half of the week, spreading 
northward from the Gulf. A strong trough is then forecast to push 
southward across the southern Plains, dragging a quickly moving 
stronger cold front along with it. This front is forecast to push 
through our region sometime Thursday night into Friday. Cooler and 
drier conditions are once again on tap in the wake of this front. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. As
a dry cold front pushes through the region tonight and tomorrow,
some scattered to broken upper level clouds will be present;
however, VFR conditions will remain. Winds will also remain
northerly at around 5 to 10 knots through the TAF period. 


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

A dry cold front is forecast to push across the waters tomorrow with 
breezy northerly winds in its wake. Northerly winds will gradually 
become easterly and eventually southeasterly throughout the week. 
Periods of cautionary conditions are expected during the overnight 
and early morning hours throughout the upcoming week. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Dry conditions are expected to continue through the weekend into 
early next week across the area. A dry cold front will cross the 
region on Thursday, bringing only a slight increase in low-level 
moisture, but also an increase in winds. Dispersions will be quite 
high on Saturday afternoon. By Sunday, humidity will fall once 
again, along with winds. There will increased fire danger both days, 
despite not reaching Red Flag criteria.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

No appreciable rainfall is expected over the next week. Therefore, 
there are no hydrology concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  58  85  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Panama City   85  59  83  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Dothan        84  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Albany        84  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Valdosta      87  57  86  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Cross City    88  60  87  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Apalachicola  85  62  82  62 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Scholl