374 
FXUS61 KCTP 080310
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1110 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A northwest flow of colder air will keep below normal 
temperatures and mainly dry conditions across the region
this fall weekend. A few light lake effect rain showers will be
possible across the northwest portion of the state and Laurel 
Highlands into Saturday.

Following a rather wet start to October, a much drier pattern 
is forecast with very little to no rain forecast through the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A few returns on the radar, but not looking at a lot of response
off the lakes overall. This based on 500 mb heights not being 
as low as last event, and that the lakes have cooled quite a bit
since late September. A breeze and extensive cloud cover will 
keep temperatures from dropping too low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Made a few minor adjustments to the cloud cover on Saturday.

Lake effect rain showers will be limited, for the factors
I listed in the above section.

Earlier discussion below.

Vertical mixing Sat aftn should peak at 4-5 kft AGl in most 
places, but still only yield temps fairly cool for the season 
(10-15F below normals in most places). Expect shallow, bkn
strato cu across the NW mtns and Laurels, while sct pancakus cu
should be found across the Central Ridge and Valley region of
the state. 

A NW wind will add a Fall chill, making it feel even a few 
degrees cooler. Fcst lows Saturday night are in the 30s 
everywhere except right along the lower Susq R. An active breeze
(4-8KT in general) should preclude frost formation and freezing
temps in most areas, but patchy frost is possible if the wind 
goes calm. 

Surface high pressure will maintain dry and cool weather for 
the second half of this weekend. Sunday maxes look 3-5F milder,
but still a few degrees below normals for mid-Oct.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main change was to adjust POPS a bit across the far north
on Monday, given secondary cold front. While the main risk
of showers will be mainly north of the border, a few drops
of rain will be possible, as the airmass cools aloft and winds
shift more to the northwest aloft.

Models show a lot of spread from run to run and day to day.
EC might support a larger warm up on Thursday and a slower
cold front passage later next week, but did not change much,
forecast based on forecast builder for now.

Earlier discussion below.

All medium range guidance tracks a shortwave and associated 
dying cold front into the area Monday, but the lack of moisture
and weak forcing indicate this feature will likely come through
dry.

Rising heights and the presence of a large surface high along 
the east coast should ensure fair weather through the first half
of next week with temperatures returning to near seasonable 
levels. ECENS and GEFS plumes indicate the next chance of rain 
showers will come Wed night into Thu in association with a 
frontal system front pressing in from the Grt Lks. Cooler air
will move in behind the front for Fri-Sat, along with the chance
for lake effect rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The cold front, with limited moisture, will push SE of the Lower
Susq Valley early this evening. It will be followed by
relatively shallow, cooler and moist airmass late today and
tonight, supporting MVFR cigs across at least western and 
northern airfields, along with the chance of a few light 
showers. NW winds will gust into the mid teens to around 20 kts
late today through Saturday.

Outlook...

Sat...MVFR cigs with ocnl -shra NW Mtns and Laurel Highlands.  
Otherwise, low VFR cigs.

Sun and Mon...Mainly VFR expected. Gusty W wind.

Tue...VFR and less windy

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Wind has returned to the KBFD obs after completion of 
maintenance/upgrades on the ASOS. A similar interruption will 
occur at many other terminals across Central PA over the next 
few weeks.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Martin
NEAR TERM...Martin
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Martin
LONG TERM...Martin/Colbert
AVIATION...Lambert
EQUIPMENT...Lambert